Global trade growth could slow to 2.2% in 2026 as tariff restrictions take full effect. The data was cited in the UN report “World Economic Situation and Prospects - 2026“, which was presented to the Free Economic Society.
“In 2025, global trade remained resilient, with its volume expected to have increased by 3.8%, despite heightened trade policy uncertainty and higher US tariffs. “Momentum is expected to weaken in 2026, with world trade growth expected to slow to 2.2% as the supply-side push fades and tariff restrictions take full effect,“ the report authors note.
UN experts say growth in 2025 was supported by robust trade in goods, driven by faster supply in anticipation of new tariffs, as well as continued robust expansion in trade in services, particularly in tourism, digital services and professional services.
“While tariffs and other protectionist measures destabilize the international trading environment and increase uncertainty, global integration remains deep; “Trade in goods and services still accounts for over 50% of global GDP,” the UN noted.
According to the report, amid short-term volatility, structural changes are changing the face of global trade. Companies are diversifying supply chains, relocating production, expanding South-South trade links, while rapid digitalization and technological innovation are fueling the growth of digitally enabled services.
Overall, the report's authors attribute these changes to the gradual transformation of global trade.
“It's not just about fragmentation. The outlook remains influenced by competing factors: the situation could worsen due to renewed trade tensions, but things could also improve thanks to the easing of trade frictions and the strengthening of regional integration initiatives, which could boost trade and investment flows,“ the UN added.