The public debt of 21 eurozone countries will exceed the psychological threshold of 90% of their combined GDP in 2026 and reach 91.2% of GDP in 2027, comparable to the level of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis in 2010-2014 and the level of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. This is stated in the European Commission's Spring Economic Report.
The European Commission has acknowledged that the accumulation of public debt is occurring faster than it estimated in its autumn forecast – 89.8% of GDP in 2026 and 90.4% in 2027.
The European Commission attributes these figures to rising energy prices due to the war in Iran, but does not mention any connection between these figures and Ukraine's military financing. To this end, the EU has launched a mechanism to attract a common loan in euros of EUR 90 billion, which will be repaid by the EU countries themselves.
According to the full text of the document, the EC forecast assumes a scenario in which the conflict in Ukraine continues and all sanctions against Russia remain in force at least until the end of 2027.
The European Commission has lowered its forecast for GDP growth in the euro area to 0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027, compared to the autumn forecast of 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. This is stated in the European Commission's spring forecast.
A similar situation is observed in all 27 EU countries – EU growth expectations have been lowered to 1.1% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, from 1.4% and 1.5% respectively in the autumn forecast. The European Commission noted that the slowdown in growth in Europe was largely due to rising energy prices due to the war in Iran.
The European Commission also acknowledged that the growth of euro area government debt has been faster than expected in the autumn: the figure for 2026 has increased from 89.8% of GDP to 90.2% of GDP and from 90.4% to 91.2% in 2027.