The problem of water scarcity in Bulgaria is becoming more serious with each passing year. But as soon as the rains begin to fall, the topic abruptly disappears from public discourse – as if the problem has been solved. In fact, it is not. Bulgaria is increasingly living in the climate paradox of alternating droughts and sudden, destructive torrents with almost unchanged annual precipitation. Floods and droughts are not opposites, but two sides of the same climate change, writes "Klimateka".
This „new normal“ requires not reactions after each disaster, but a long-term change in the way we think, plan and manage water resources.
How warming “charges“ extreme weather
The warmer the atmosphere, the more energy accumulates in it. With an increase in global temperature by every 1°C, the amount of moisture in the air increases by an average of 7%.
On the other hand, each evaporated water particle contains a certain amount of energy taken from the evaporating medium - be it ocean or land. Thus, evaporation constantly charges the atmosphere with colossal amounts of energy - it is it that drives all atmospheric processes.
The more this energy, the more intense the meteorological phenomena become: precipitation, storms, hail and winds. But in between them, the other extreme is also growing - longer and more severe periods of drought.
The new rhythm of precipitation in Bulgaria
In Bulgaria, this effect of climate change is combined with changes in atmospheric circulation, which gradually changes the precipitation regime - precipitation increases during the cold half of the year at the expense of those during the warm half.
At this stage, annual precipitation amounts are changing relatively little. However, longer-term forecasts indicate a certain decrease in total precipitation amounts. In combination with rising temperatures, this outlines a serious long-term trend towards drought across the country.
„The New Normal“: Less frequent but more intense rainfall
The apparent trend, especially in the spring-summer period, for rainfall to become less frequent but significantly more intense is particularly worrying.
While 30-40 years ago, periods without rain lasting longer than 7-8 days were rarely observed in most of the country, today 15-20 day droughts are already a common occurrence. In individual cases and in some places, rainless periods reach even two, and sometimes two and a half months.
This „new normal“ means much greater stress for natural ecosystems, agriculture and water resources.
What awaits us in the future?
The forecasts are for a deepening of the trends outlined in recent years. Of course, precipitation also has a short-term cyclicality with alternating drier and wetter periods of several years. A certain increase in quantities by the end of the decade is not ruled out. The trend towards more frequent intense precipitation, however, will persist.
The sea as a generator of storms
A relatively new phenomenon (or at least seriously increasing in frequency) is the increase in precipitation in the autumn months, with frequent occurrence of torrential rains. The main “culprit” This is due to the extremely high water temperatures in the Mediterranean and Black Seas in August-October.
Against the background of the land already cooling down after the summer heat, the warm water mass is a generator of strong evaporation, and any atmospheric disturbance passing over these water areas can develop into a cyclone, similar to tropical hurricanes from low latitudes. It is these storms that contribute the most to the increase in autumn rainfall.
But these are not the beneficial, even rains that the land, dried up after the long summer, needs. These are torrential rains that cause rivers to overflow their beds, destroy infrastructure, undermine banks, activate landslides and collapses and increasingly often lead to severe damage and a real threat to human life.
2025 – a clear example of the “new normal“
2025 has become a clear and alarming example of what the “new normal“ of climate in Bulgaria looks like. Within a year, the country experienced a sharp alternation of climate extremes – from snowless winters and prolonged droughts to destructive rainfall and early snowfalls.
The year began with a winter with little snow, similar to the previous two years – without the accumulation of a sustainable snow reserve. This was followed by an unusually dry summer period, which began as early as June – a month in which, traditionally, many regions of the country record maximum precipitation. Instead, precipitation amounts then reached only about 30% of the climate norm.
The summer was marked by extreme heat. Especially in the second half of July, temperatures were scorching, and the combination of drought and heat led to huge fires and significant losses - often as a result of human negligence or deliberate actions.
Just a few weeks later, the picture changed abruptly. After a relatively mild August and a dry September, a very wet October and November followed, marked by intense rainfall and flooding. A number of regions were affected - among them Elenite, Tsarevo and parts of Southwestern Bulgaria.
In early October, a cold wave in the wake of a cyclone led to a sharp cold snap and snowfall, with the snow cover reaching about 20 cm in Northwestern Bulgaria, and in the Stara Planina Mountains - over 50 cm.
In just one year, we have witnessed droughts, heat waves, fires, torrential rains, floods and early snows - almost all the climate extremes we are talking about.
When the climate hits everyday life
This “new normal“ is becoming a serious test for agriculture and drinking water supply, especially against the background of the dire state of the water transmission infrastructure in our country, where nearly half of the water supplied does not reach consumers. In a country with outdated networks and large losses, climate extremes are no longer just a natural phenomenon, but a deep social and economic problem. The consequences are multidirectional - damage to plants and crops, serious material destruction, loss of human life and accelerated soil erosion caused by both floods and prolonged droughts.
Adaptation instead of crisis reactions
In recent years, much has been said about the necessary actions and solutions. The main directions are well known and do not require new discoveries, but consistency and perseverance.
The key word is adaptation - adjusting the drainage infrastructure to higher maximum water quantities, a significant reduction in losses in the water supply network and more reasonable, long-term management of water resources.
In conditions of rising temperatures and more frequent droughts, the introduction of real water savings - both in industrial production and in domestic consumption - is becoming increasingly urgent. Water is no longer a given, but a limited resource that must be managed purposefully.
Along with systemic measures, human behavior is also crucial. In hot and dry periods, the responsibility of each of us is key to limiting the risk of fires – through elementary but often neglected actions: not to throw unextinguished cigarettes, not to throw waste in nature, not to burn stubble and garbage, and to sanction violations strictly and consistently.
In the long term, the most important investment remains educating children in responsibility towards nature and the protection of forest and water resources – because adaptation is not a one-time measure, but a lasting social process.
The main conclusion is clear: we can no longer afford to think about solutions only after the problem has spread – when there are victims, destruction, burned forests and people left without water. The reactive approach is proving to be increasingly expensive and increasingly insufficient.
In the conditions of a changing climate, water, land and forest management must be year-round, systematic and consistent, and not campaign-based and crisis-based. Nature will no longer tolerate our irresponsible behavior – and we are already paying the price for this. Every tree, every blade of grass and every drop of water matters.
Prof. Emil Gachev is an author at Klimateka. He is a professor in the “Waters“ section of the Institute for Climate, Atmosphere and Water Research at the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, and also works in the “Geography“ department at the Institute of Geophysics, Geodesy and Geography – BAS. He received his PhD in “Landscape Science“ in 2005 from the Faculty of Geography of the Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski“. He conducts research in the fields of hydrology, geomorphology and climate change.