Data for the first seven months of 2026 show a worrying and sustainable trend - with the increase in traffic in spring and summer, the interval between deaths on Bulgarian roads is constantly shortening. This means that despite the unprecedented mobilization of control bodies, the risk is not only not decreasing, but is increasing. The analysis was conducted by the team of the Institute for Road Safety. Here are some more of the experts' data:
The black math on the road
January: 1 death every 20 hours and 07 minutes
February: 1 death every 26 hours and 53 minutes
March: 1 death every 27 hours and 33 minutes
April: 1 death every 20 hours and 34 minutes
May: 1 death every 16 hours and 55 minutes
June: 1 death every 15 hours.
July (until July 24): 1 death every 14 hours and 46 minutes
In just four months, the interval between two deaths has shortened from nearly 28 hours to under 15 hours. This is not a statistical anomaly, but an indicator of a deepening systemic problem.
What do the data show?
1. Summer increases risk, but the system does not adapt
1. Summer increases risk, but the system does not adapt
In May, June and July, traffic reaches its highest values due to holidays, the tourist season and international transit. With such dynamics, the risk must be managed in advance. Instead, institutions continue to react only after serious incidents occur.
2. Physical control has reached its limit
Currently, the Ministry of Interior is using maximum resources – teams of “Traffic Police“, “Security Police“ and the Gendarmerie are working around the clock. Despite this, the number of deaths is not decreasing.
The reason is obvious – There is no way to effectively control a road network of over 60,000 kilometers with a physical presence. No matter how many police teams are sent to the field, they cannot be everywhere and at all times.
3. Lack of risk management
The Road Safety Institute has prepared a national risk map based on real data on speeding and driver behavior. The analysis shows that the state has the ability to predict where the probability of serious accidents is highest, but does not use such an approach.
Instead of managing the risk, the institutions continue to only manage its consequences.
Today's statements confirmed the systemic failure
The public statements of representatives of the institutions today provided further evidence of the lack of effective risk management.
The data presented by Prof. Oleg Asenov showed serious shortcomings in the control of transit traffic and the measurement of average speed. In practice, foreign drivers commit violations on Bulgarian roads without being effectively sanctioned when leaving the country. The greatest concentration of violations was reported on the Harmanli - Lyubimets section. This shows that this year, the state has failed to ensure effective control over one of the busiest international transport corridors.
At the same time, the chairman of the State Road Safety Agency did not publicly indicate which institutions are not implementing the National Road Safety Strategy. Instead of clear responsibility, the society receives administrative explanations. As long as the fear of taking responsibility is stronger than the desire to solve the problem, road safety will continue to be managed on paper, not in reality.
It is time to change course
The current model is exhausted. More police actions and more officers on the road do not lead to fewer victims. The data clearly shows this.
Road safety must move from a reactive to a preventive model, based on risk analysis and resource management where the probability of serious accidents is highest.
The Road Safety Institute has already developed and presented such a model. From now on, the choice is up to the government – whether to continue to manage the consequences of road accidents, or to start managing the risk before they happen.