Comment by Konstantin Eggert:
Russia's hybrid war against the EU and NATO countries is in full swing, and the Kremlin will continue to wage it even more sophisticatedly, says a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Ukrainian drones over Putin's residence?
Sabotage against Europe's critical infrastructure, violations of the airspace of EU countries, and disinformation have in a sense become almost commonplace for Europeans during the war waged by Russia against Ukraine.
The authors of the report believe that the EU and NATO countries have not yet prepared a clear strategy for opposing the Russian regime in this area. The document notes that it is quite natural to attempt to prevent threats, but also that retaliation for Russia's hybrid actions should be swift and demonstrative. The reluctance of Europeans to create panic, traditions in the judicial sphere, and the caution inherent in any bureaucracy lead to the fact that some actions do not receive the necessary public publicity and assessment.
The Putin regime will certainly take advantage of this in 2026. Moreover, this year will be difficult from its point of view. In the first half of January, 1,418 days will have passed since the start of the full-scale invasion of the Russian army in Ukraine, and the Soviet-German war, called the Great Patriotic War in Russia, lasted exactly the same amount of time. This is a very unpleasant time limit for Putin. Judging by 2025, the Russian army is unlikely to achieve any particular successes in 2026. In these conditions, hybrid actions turn out to be not only a relatively cheap form of pressure on the West, but also a convenient opportunity for Russian special services to demonstrate successes and improve Putin's mood. And this is a very important task for his "courtiers".
Disinformation and lies
There are also important political tasks for which disinformation methods will be used. The most recent example is the statement by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov about attacks by Ukrainian drones on Putin's residence. According to him, Moscow will now reconsider its negotiating position, but will not leave the negotiations. President Volodymyr Zelensky called Lavrov's statement "a lie". Indeed, the Ukrainian leader would have to be a complete lunatic to order such an attack right after what was apparently a successful meeting for Ukraine with President Donald Trump in Florida.
The goal of Lavrov's accusations is to prevent the strengthening of understanding between Zelensky and Trump, while at the same time convincing the American president not to break with Moscow. And in fact, this is a strategic task for the Russian leadership in 2026 - as much as possible to keep Trump from breaking off relations and imposing new sanctions on Russia.
"The Legend of the Kozak" and support for Orban
The story that suddenly appeared in the Western media and on social networks about how the former head of the Russian presidential administration Dmitry Kozak in September 2025 wrote a letter to Putin with sharp criticism of Russia's attack on Ukraine, how he tried to change the Kremlin's policy and opposed Putin, in my opinion, is again disinformation aimed at solving this same task. There is no independent confirmation of the oppositional attitudes of the former official Kozak, the leak of information about this is aimed at creating a false impression among Americans and Europeans - that the Russian regime is not monolithic, that discussions are taking place in Moscow and there are more moderate people. According to this logic, if the West increases pressure on Russia, these people will be crushed by the “hardliners“ and the chance for a gradual “soft change“ in the Kremlin's policy will be missed. The information manipulation is clearly based on the reluctance of Western countries to enter into a tough confrontation with the Russian regime because of the threat of nuclear war and fears that in the event of the collapse of the current regime, an even worse one could replace it.
There is another direction for using the efforts of the Russian special services. In April, parliamentary elections are coming up in Hungary, and there is a real chance that the "Fidesz" party of Viktor Orban, Moscow's main European ally, will lose them. I am sure that not only the army of propagandists and trolls on social networks will be thrown to save him - this goes without saying. I do not rule out more serious provocations, the blame for which could be placed on Ukraine and Orban given the opportunity to prove that his hostile attitude towards the neighboring country is justified.
Terrorism and sabotage
But will Moscow carry out terrorist acts and sabotage similar to those organized on the railway arteries of Poland? This will happen only in those countries where it can seriously affect the balance of political forces in favor of the pro-Russians, or where it can inflict not only psychological but also direct military damage. From this point of view, Lithuania, where a Bundeswehr brigade is to be stationed in 2027-2028, and Poland, which plans to begin construction of a nuclear power plant in 2026, seem to be potential targets for saboteurs. However, in the past, both countries have repeatedly demonstrated their determination to respond to hybrid attacks, and this significantly increases the risks for Russian agents. Let us recall that when Poland shot down Russian drones that violated its airspace, and then declared that it was creating an expensive drone defense system, the intensity of the “accidental” violations by Russian drones in the region have noticeably decreased.
The Russian regime always succumbs to determined resistance. And 2026 will most likely confirm this conclusion.