A few months before the parliamentary elections in Israel, the war with Iran gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu an opportunity to restore his image, damaged by the attacks on October 7, 2023, but the effect may be short-lived if the conflict drags on, experts say.
After the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the attack on Tehran, Netanyahu took advantage of his special ties with Washington to pave the way for the overthrow of the Iranian "terrorist regime" – his goal, as he himself stated, "for 40 years".
The unprecedented attack by the Palestinian movement "Hamas" on October 7, 2023, followed by the devastating war in Gaza, undermined his popularity, but this new conflict could change the situation in his favor.
His numerous critics accuse him of not taking responsibility for the failure of the authorities to protect the country from the bloodiest day in its history.
At 76 years old, the leader of the major right-wing party "Likud" holds the record for the longest-serving Israeli government (over 18 years in total) and is known for his incredible ability to recover.
However, he has not had a majority in parliament since the summer – after the secession of the ultra-Orthodox religious parties – and is facing a long-term corruption trial, for which he is seeking a presidential pardon.
"A complete victory?"
The elections are expected to be held no later than October 27. According to Emmanuel Navon, a professor of political science at Tel Aviv University, Benjamin Netanyahu will call them earlier.
"It is obvious, he will not wait for October with the connotation of the anniversary of the 7th", he notes.
"Although Netanyahu was in deep crisis after the "Hamas" attack, he has since gradually turned the tide" with the defeats inflicted on "Hamas", the Lebanese "Hezbollah" and Iran, which was already weakened in June 2025 by Israeli attacks.
According to surveys, "Likud", led by Netanyahu, would win the elections today (in full proportionality), which would guarantee him the opportunity to form the next government, but without the possibility of forming a majority with his current allies.
After this new attack on Iran, the forecasts may change.
"This offensive undoubtedly reinforces the image that Netanyahu wants to cultivate, associated with his slogan of "total victory", analyzed for AFP Michael Horowitz, an independent expert on geopolitics.
"He wants to show that this is not an election slogan, but a reality, that this is his national program and election strategy," he added.
"Iran remains Iran"
On the news website "Walla", journalist Uriel Daskal goes so far as to express suspicions that the Israeli leader chose the moment to start military action in order to try to postpone, thanks to the state of emergency, the March 30 deadline for adopting a budget for which there is no majority.
Without a budget, the government falls on April 1 and elections are scheduled, but in that case Netanyahu will face them as the weaker party.
"If this war against Iran is a success for Israel, it will be a political victory for Netanyahu," Navon believes.
But if the conflict drags on, things will be very different, according to Horowitz's analysis.
"Public opinion's tolerance for a long war with heavy losses, accompanied by a high cost in human lives, remains extremely low. low", he believes.
Especially considering that for Raviv Drucker, one of the leading journalists on Channel 13 television, talking about a complete victory is "an illusion" because "Hamas" still rules in Gaza, (and) Iran remains Iran even after the attack on Saturday".
During the 12-day war in June 2025, Iranian missiles killed 30 people in Israel. Since Saturday, 10 people have already been killed in Iranian retaliatory strikes.
"Israel's victories are primarily attributed to the army and the resilience of civilians, who managed to wage the longest war in the country's history on seven fronts simultaneously (Gaza, Iran, Yemen, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq)", recalls Michael Horowitz.
"The army's popularity is growing, but not necessarily Netanyahu's,", he concludes.
Translated from French: Asen Georgiev, BTA