It seems that Iran is in no hurry to negotiate with the US for peace. Tehran is even demonstrating sarcasm regarding the unilateral ceasefire announced by Trump. What calculations does the regime in Iran make and what does this tactic mean.
The Iranian state news agency IRNA has recently released a satirical video: in it, a lone delegation from the US sits at a long conference table – and waits, but the Iranians do not appear. “If Iran does not negotiate, we will bomb them”, shouts US President Donald Trump in the clip. Then – according to the caption 2000 years later – Trump is handed a note that says “Shut up, Trump“. Then the American president announces that he is extending the ceasefire at the request of Pakistan. And at the end, there is a loud laugh off-screen.
What is Tehran counting on
This video aims to show once again that the Iranians are in no hurry to negotiate, writes the German public media ARD. It quotes the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Baghai, who, in front of the BBC, blames the US for the lack of a peace agreement – and in particular “because of the confusing messages coming from the US and the many violations of the ceasefire“.
One of the controversial issues between the US and Iran is the Strait of Hormuz. This important strait for world trade was closed again by Iran due to the US blockade of Iranian ports, which Tehran declared a "serious violation of the ceasefire". Meanwhile, oil prices continue to rise, ARD reports.
Tehran wants to push Trump on the defensive
Iran expert Bauke Baumann from the German Heinrich Böll Foundation says: Tehran is buying time. Its strategy is to raise the price for the whole world. "And, unfortunately, it is achieving this surprisingly well by closing the Strait of Hormuz," Baumann tells ARD.
Tehran hopes that rising gasoline prices will put Trump under such strong domestic political pressure that he will be forced to make concessions to Iran. But Tehran will not be able to withstand the American blockade in the long term, Bauman believes. Because the country's economy was in bad shape even before the war, and the destruction from the US and Israeli air strikes is gigantic.
If negotiations do take place in the Pakistani capital Islamabad in the coming days, it is not clear with whom the Americans will actually negotiate. Major changes have taken place in Iran's power apparatus, and for outside observers it remains largely a kind of "black box". Although there are strongmen of the day, such as the speaker of the parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, they cannot behave like dictators and must coordinate their actions with the military and the Revolutionary Guard. However, Bauman does not rule out the possibility that this is just a tactic to take a better starting position. If negotiations do come to fruition, Tehran could explain that domestic political circumstances do not allow it to make more concessions, the Iran expert points out.
Many contentious issues, many possibilities
Among the contentious issues are the Strait of Hormuz, as well as Tehran's nuclear and missile programs. If negotiations and an agreement are reached, both sides will probably have to make concessions.
For example, Iran could temporarily stop enriching uranium, and the United States could recognize its right in principle to carry out enrichment. They could also agree to limit the range of missiles, if the program is not completely terminated. Or the Strait of Hormuz should be opened if Tehran is recognized as having some role in administering this waterway, ARD points out.
The big losers are the people in Iran
It is not clear whether the two sides will agree to such compromises. However, one thing is clear: the losers in this war are the people in Iran. Repressions are intensifying, death sentences are carried out almost every day, the internet continues to be blocked.
“In this sense, ordinary people are already the big losers. But they will turn out to be even bigger losers if a possible deal is reached that would ease sanctions against the Iranian regime or even legitimize it. Because their interests remain in the background and, unfortunately, they currently have almost no place in the debate“, Bauke Baumann also points out to the public ARD.