From its first days, the new government of Bulgaria has been trying to demonstrate a flying start in solving the many and serious problems that have accumulated before the government of the country. Three immediate priorities stand out from the requests of the cabinet and its individual members:
Adoption of the state budget for 2026.
The new cabinet must submit and adopt a regular budget within 3-4 weeks, after the country was forced to spend half the year with an extended budget from last year. This includes a revision of public spending and disclosure of the real financial obligations that weigh on the future budget. To facilitate the task, the government will strive to renew and accelerate the absorption of EU funds under the Sustainability and Development Plan and prevent the loss of financing.
Controlling inflation
Dealing with “galloping“ inflationary trends, the rise in the cost of living and the rise in the cost of energy are among the first tasks outlined by the Prime Minister and the ministers.
Judicial reform and the fight against corruption
Judicial reform (including changes to the Judiciary Act and changes to the composition and functions of the Supreme Judicial Council) remains a central priority, as it is a key part of European commitments and public expectations.
The issues related to these three priorities have been plaguing Bulgarian society for a long time and fueled the discussions that led to the outcome of the elections on April 19. People are eager to see quick and visible results. It is logical that the new government should address them. There may be quick actions, but there are no visible, stable results How can we expect it so soon?
After the genie was let out of the bottle six years ago, there is no way to immediately return to a balanced budget with a zero deficit or even a healthy surplus. The first obstacle is the difficulty of cutting benefits that have once been given and sharply increasing revenues without increasing the tax burden. If it wants to make ends meet, the government will have to cut "live meat." The bigger problem facing balancing the budget is the one that almost no one talks about, namely the unfavorable changes in the structure of the economy and society as a whole. In recent years, industrial production in our country has been declining.
As a result of the demographic crisis, the shrinking workforce must provide for the support of an ever-increasing percentage of the population unable to work. A huge change has occurred in international conditions. The era of cheap energy has remained permanent in history. Geopolitical tensions, sanctions policies and disruptions in supply chains are factors beyond our control that also drive inflation. The ancients said that you can’t step into the same river twice. That’s why we can’t balance the state finances by rewriting the budgets of the previous decade. It just won’t work. A new approach is needed.
The fight against inflation cannot be waged only by activating the various control bodies under the command of “Dondukov“ 1. These actions will certainly have some disciplinary effect on the so-called unjustified price increases, but the genesis of the rise in the cost of living is not subject to the bureaucracy’s control. It is rooted in the ruin of agriculture during the years of transition.
The nutrition of our population today can be summarized in a few words:
Some foreign chains that have come to our country to make a profit are selling Bulgarians food products produced in near and far countries by producers who also want to make a profit. Half of the tomatoes, a large part of the cucumbers, peppers, potatoes, and fruits come from abroad. Half of the pork and beef in Bulgarian stores is also imported. In the case of dairy products, the ratio seems to be better, but at the expense of the record import of powdered milk, which puts strong pressure on domestic livestock farmers. Thus, the Bulgarian cheese that we buy is often Bulgarian in terms of label, but not in terms of content. In this situation, we cannot expect that the prices of food products in stores will not skyrocket.
The judicial reform seems to be the most susceptible to quick action
But this applies to the formal side of the issue. Within the first year of government, the necessary legal changes can be voted on and personnel appointments can be made. The real results of them will become visible later, and we will be able to talk about sustainable change after even more time. In the national expert study “The Ten Most Important Risks to Bulgaria's Development for the Next 10 Years“, which we conducted last year together with the UNWE, the increase in distrust in the rule of law was highlighted as the number one risk for the next decade. Such a deep public attitude requires continuous systematic efforts to change it.
Obviously, Rumen Radev's government will not soon be able to boast of a final victory on these three priorities, regardless of the energy it will throw at their solution. In military terms, the work will not end with a triumphant battle, but will end in a prolonged campaign and even a positional war at some points. Hence the risk that the government will sink into the quagmire of banality and mediocrity in the eyes of impatient voters.
To get out of this trap that life has set for him, Radev must “sell“ us a project that will retain its brilliance for years. Such a project is neither more nor less a new vision for the long-term development of the country.
Bulgarian society has many shortcomings and specific problems to solve, but they all have one common point. We do not have a consensus on our path forward as a society towards a sufficiently large and worthy goal to pursue for a long period of time. We are not satisfied with the dissection of society that we have received as a result of the long transition, but we do not formulate a goal, ideal, dream or whatever you want to call it, where we want to go.
In order to solve even the most immediate tasks that it faces, the government of Rumen Radev must lead us along a path that is associated with “sweat and tears“. Without raising the bar high, the risk that those in power will start to lose their energy, and the governed - their patience, will become increasingly greater.
In its election program “Progressive Bulgaria“ set itself the goal in the economic field to:
* strengthen economic growth through innovation, investment and better infrastructure;
* maintain a stable budget and sustainable public finances;
* improve the business climate;
* promote key sectors such as tourism, energy and agriculture;
* reduce poverty and improve social conditions.
These goals, as well as other priorities, among which the dismantling of the oligarchic model stood out, were developed in detail on many pages in the program. Their achievement should lead to a change in the system so that the state works for the citizens, and not for narrow economic and political interests.
In a normal political and economic environment, the implementation of such a program should mean a successful governing mandate and a chance to continue after the regular elections in four years. However, the combination of deep crises in various areas of public life can in no way be called normal. It requires an extraordinary effort from “Progressive Bulgaria“, which should be supported by the citizens.
In my book “2050 is fatally close. Will Bulgaria still be there?“, published at the end of 2020, I wrote that it is necessary, and as late as possible, by mid-century for Bulgaria to reach and surpass the average European level in terms of basic economic and social indicators. At that time, this prospect seemed quite bold, and from today's perspective, it can even be called modest. According to forecasts and analyses based on data from the International Monetary Fund, Bulgaria has the potential to significantly approach the average European income within the next decade. Whether we will bring them closer or equal them depends largely on us.
Our rise to the middle of the European ranking is not an end in itself. It is directly related to successfully confronting the greatest danger that threatens the future and the very existence of the Bulgarian nation. Despite some timid positive signals, we have not yet overcome the tendency for the severe demographic crisis in our country to grow into a demographic catastrophe.
All this requires the four-year management program to be part of a long-term vision for the development of the country with a horizon of at least 10-15 years. Such a vision must include a number of priorities. Here are just some of them:
A strategy for the development of industrial production, which will be competitive in the domestic and international markets.
Ensuring conditions for a boom in investments in the most modern technologies with high added value.
Guaranteeing the country's energy independence at competitive prices.
Food security strategy, based on the development of agriculture with the minimum goal of feeding the Bulgarian population and the maximum goal of using all the resources of Bulgarian nature for the successful export of food products abroad.
A radical change in education, which would ensure, on the one hand, the best possible realization of young people in the labor market and meet the needs of modern business personnel, and on the other hand, emphasize patriotic education as a means of preserving national identity.
A profound reform in healthcare, which would erase the label of the Bulgarian nation as the sickest and with the lowest life expectancy in Europe.
The final result should be measured by returning and even surpassing the good positions that Bulgaria had in the UN ranking according to the Human Development Index.
None of the above can be done in one year. Most of these goals far exceed the time of a four-year term. However, for them to happen, the work on them must begin, and the time is right now. By the middle of the mandate, it will already be too late. By then, the government will be worn out enough, and the citizens will be tired enough to conclude a new social contract.