Author: Alexander Detev
Not a single step forward. This is how the Russian offensive in Ukraine in recent months can be described. A number of observers and experts emphasize that recently, Putin's army has been unable to conquer almost any territory in Ukraine. The front is divided by no man's land, placed within the range of drones, where not even a chicken can fly. At the same time, black rain fell over the heads of Muscovites after Ukraine struck an oil refinery near Moscow. The war has reached the Russians, and the myth of the invincible Russian army has been slowly but surely crumbling for four years.
At the same time, the United States has failed to sign an agreement with Iran, even as Donald Trump desperately tries to declare a victory that he badly needs in the context of the upcoming midterm elections in the country. In fact, the ayatollahs and, above all, the Revolutionary Guard have tightened their grip on power, discovered a new effective method to blackmail the world through the Strait of Hormuz, and shattered the notion that US allies in the region are protected from military attacks.
The awe of the US and Russia is coming to an end. Neither Iran is afraid to drag out negotiations, nor Israel plans to stop its strikes on Lebanon, despite fierce criticism from Trump and Vance. At the same time, countries like Armenia, until recently considered Kremlin bastions, are breaking away from the Russian sphere of influence because it guarantees them neither security nor progress.
The world seems to be becoming increasingly multipolar, and the retrograde and brutal approach of Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump only catalyzes this process.
The scary bear turned out to be not so scary
"Europe cannot defeat the greatest nuclear power", Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev repeats endlessly, and it increasingly sounds like an annoying echo of a bygone era.
No one - neither Ukraine nor the countries supporting it - is seeking a military occupation of Moscow. The economic pressure on Russians, the loss of hundreds of thousands of young men, and the image damage from the war, which was supposedly supposed to end in three days, will sooner or later lead to the capitulation of the Kremlin regime and its killing machine. Even Donald Trump, who, among other things, is pursuing a personal vendetta against Volodymyr Zelensky, is now openly acknowledging Ukraine's successes on the front and the weak position of Putin, with whom he had been on friendly terms until recently.
The world's policeman retires
Speaking of Donald Trump - in the first year and a half of his return to the White House, he managed to break with the doctrine that the world had followed for the past 80 years. It went more or less as follows - if you are an ally of the US and Washington protects you, you are untouchable. The Gulf states - Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which have US bases on their territory, have learned the hard way that this is simply no longer true. With punitive strikes involving thousands of drones and ballistic missiles, Iran has inflicted severe economic and reputational damage on other countries in the region. They, in turn, quickly realized that they had to be able to defend themselves and even began to diversify weapons imports and draw experience from other countries - both from Turkey and from Ukraine, whose army has become one of the most high-tech in the world.
The United States lost the image not only of a reliable partner of its allies, but also of the invincible military monster, which, even before getting involved in pointless wars, always managed to overthrow the regimes that opposed it. The exceptions are Korea and Vietnam, but there the other former hegemon plays its key role.
The big winners and the big losers
In this situation, the big winners seem to be two. China, which is becoming an increasingly key economic and political player, especially for the countries of the former Soviet orbit. And the European Union, which was forced against its will to break away from Washington's tutelage.
The EU is militarizing and politicizing. The price that the 27 are paying is high, but an event from early May 2026 showed the horizon ahead. The states of the Community gathered in Yerevan, including the new NATO members Sweden and Finland, as well as Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The latter four are striving for an increasingly serious commitment to Europe and believe much more in the European Union than it does.
The big loser, of course, is peace. With great power comes great responsibility, as Spider-Man's uncle said, and Europe will have to take on this responsibility if it wants to survive. This means consolidation, determination, and fighting those retrograde players who are putting a damper on common decisions.
"The old order will not return. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But it is from this rupture that we can build something better, stronger and more just. That is the task of the middle powers," Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently said. And when the great powers are in retreat, the future clearly belongs to the middle powers.