A number of voters in Latin American countries clearly believe that it is time to undo the gains made by left-wing feminists, ethnic and sexual minorities. How is this turn to the right explained?
Right-wing extremist Abelardo de la Espriea recently won the presidential elections in Colombia. In Chile, another far-right candidate, José Antonio Cast, took office in March. Cast wants to cut social spending and openly declares that Pinochet's military dictatorship was a good thing. In Argentina, right-wing populist Javier Milley has been in power for three years. He is also counting on austerity to address the country's dire financial situation.
Right-wing, conservative or libertarian politicians currently govern Bolivia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru. Left-wing or far-left governments continue to rule in Brazil, Cuba, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Uruguay and Venezuela. Brazil will hold presidential elections this fall, in which the country's leftist leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off against the far-right son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio.
What's behind this trend?
Political control in Latin American countries has increasingly fallen into the hands of right-wing candidates since 2023. But what's behind this trend? Sabine Kurtenbach, director of the German Institute for Global and Local Studies in Hamburg, believes that it is due to three related problems. These are extreme social inequality, high crime and the lack of the rule of law, as well as the fact that all politicians have so far failed to deal with these problems.
In Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriea has promised to confront armed groups and drug cartels. Kurtenbach calls these promises part of Bukele's "punitive populism” - he is referring to the disputed president of El Salvador, who three years ago declared a state of emergency in the country. Since then, 75,000 Salvadorans have been imprisoned - many of them without convictions.
According to Jonas Wolf, a professor of political science at the University of Frankfurt, security concerns in Latin American countries and general discontent are the reason for the massive shift to the right. Wolf says this is a reversal of a long-standing trend. Many countries in the region experienced severe repression by military dictatorships in the 1960s and 1980s. Then came a period of democratization and peace agreements, after which left-wing parties came to power. "The beginning of the millennium was marked by economic progress. In many countries, the so-called "Rose Wave" brought left-wing governments to power," Wolf explains. "However, this phase ended at the latest with the coronavirus pandemic."
According to Kurtenbach, the rightward shift is due to people's dissatisfaction with previous left-wing governments that have failed to address the problems.
Basic human rights in question
Political scientist Thomas Koestler of the University of Würzburg, Germany, uses the analogy of a pendulum that has now swung to the right. Noting that he does not see a real ideological shift to the right in Latin America, Koestler says that recent narrow electoral majorities are more a reflection of the region’s deep political polarization. “I expect the pendulum to swing back in the not-too-distant future if the promised gains do not materialize,” Koestler says. According to him, the majority of voters are volatile and heterogeneous. In addition, in many countries, presidents cannot be directly re-elected or their term is strictly limited to one term, meaning that “the cards are automatically shuffled again.”
However, the continent’s shift to the right could be consolidated if campaign promises are kept. In El Salvador, for example, President Bukele has largely kept his promise to drastically reduce violence. Nevertheless, the situation is worrying, says Jonas Wolf. "The extent to which the right-wing is openly questioning basic civil and human rights is something new". Right-wing voters, Wolf notes, believe it is time to undo the gains made by feminism, as well as by sexual and ethnic minorities. Security issues and the "Bukele model" also go hand in hand with a general disregard for basic human rights.
The US role in the equation
Wolf also notes that right-wing forces in South and North America cooperate and support each other when they can. US President Donald Trump, more than anyone else, is trying to support his right-wing allies in other countries. For example, last year he not only supported Milley before the elections in Argentina, but also sent billions in financial aid to the country to slow down galloping inflation there. Trump is also an open supporter of the Bolsonaro family in Brazil.
However, some of the things that the Trump administration is doing are contrary to international law, according to many observers. In Cuba, the US is increasing pressure on the country with a complete oil embargo. In January, Trump ordered the US military to invade Venezuela to arrest its authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro, who will be tried in the US. This is not unprecedented - the United States intervened directly in Latin American politics during the Cold War.
However, today's political shift to the right is not just a Latin American phenomenon. State institutions and established political forces are under pressure all over the world simply because they have failed to offer the solutions that voters demand. It is therefore not surprising that populists on the left and right are trying to exploit the mass dissatisfaction of people with traditional parties for their own purposes.
Sabine Kurtenbach argues for abandoning the traditional labels of "left" and "right", and instead focusing on human rights and the rule of law. "There are governments that recognize the autonomy and role of democratic institutions. And there are others, whether right or left, that do not".