Crimea was supposed to be Russian President Vladimir Putin's greatest success - a fulcrum in the war against Ukraine, a springboard for projecting Russian military power across the Black Sea region and a domestic political symbol of his imperial ambitions. But all of that is now under threat, as Ukraine gains air control over routes to the Russian-occupied peninsula, strikes at supply logistics and seeks to isolate and weaken Russian forces on the southern front, writes "Politico".
"My mother was convinced that neither Russia nor Ukraine would ever do anything to threaten Crimea," recalls Oleksandra, who does not reveal her surname for fear of putting her loved ones at risk. Even as missiles fired from Crimea pounded Kiev, "she would say, "But Crimea is something special".
In the 12 years since Russia annexed the peninsula, Moscow has created the impression that it is untouchable thanks to its massive militarization and economic integration. But what was once a strategic asset for President Vladimir Putin is now a critical vulnerability—both militarily and personally.
Today, Crimea’s 2.5 million people—including Oleksandra’s parents—live without electricity and water, without supplies, and without fuel, while Ukrainian drones attack energy infrastructure and military facilities. Mobile connectivity is down amid frequent power outages, public transport has virtually ceased to function, and the sale of fuel to individuals and businesses is banned. Prices have skyrocketed, and the tourist season on which many depend has been completely ruined.
In late June, the authorities declared a state of emergency.
For many, leaving Crimea has also become almost impossible. Ukrainian drones have destroyed bridges and are now patrolling the land route through occupied southern Ukraine to Russia. Most trains are no longer running. In early June, more than 3,000 vehicles were waiting in line to leave the peninsula via the Kerch Bridge, which Kiev claims was built without its consent and is therefore illegal.
"I was afraid my mother would blame Ukraine for all this," explained Oleksandra, who has lived in Kiev since 2014 due to pressure from Russian security services. Russia has persecuted thousands of Crimeans for alleged sympathies or ties to Ukraine.
Instead, while Ukraine’s campaign to isolate Crimea appears to be shifting the balance of power in the south of the country, Oleksandra’s mother now believes—like many Ukrainians—that the war will end on the peninsula.
“My mother harbors this hope,” Oleksandra said. “But I’m not sure she understands the price it could come with.”
“Crimea is the golden key”
Crimea is something special indeed. The war in Ukraine began with its annexation in 2014, turning the peninsula into an almost sacred symbol of Russian imperial power. While the United Nations and Western countries imposed sanctions on Moscow for this flagrant violation of international law, they have since largely accepted what happened as a fait accompli.
Over the next decade, Russia transformed the former holiday paradise into a military base that allowed its forces to quickly occupy large parts of southern Ukraine during a full-scale invasion in 2022. Crimea became a secure rear on the battlefield, supplying the Russian southern front and serving as a base for projecting military power, while the peninsula’s inhabitants remained relatively protected from the war itself.
That changed dramatically this summer.
Thanks to Ukraine’s current advantage in medium-range strike drones, the country is now in a position to weaken, and perhaps even destroy, some of Russia’s military capabilities in the south of the country by disrupting the logistics on which the military depends. Ukraine hopes this will force Russia to shift forces from other parts of the front, which will relieve pressure on the Ukrainian army and reduce Russian attacks on cities and towns.
"We want to destroy the Russian military presence in Crimea, and I think we will do it," said Andriy Zagorodniuk, chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies think tank and former Ukrainian defense minister.
Breaking Russia’s military grip on Crimea also has implications beyond Ukraine, as it would disrupt Moscow’s military operations from its Black Sea bases. For example, the peninsula was the logistical hub that supported Russia’s campaign in Syria from 2015 to 2024.
Crimea also has enormous personal significance for Putin, whose popularity at home has soared since the peninsula, first colonized by the Russian Empire some 300 years ago, was so easily retaken. Losing it would deal a direct blow to his reputation and could fuel discontent with his rule and the war within Russia itself.
"Crimea is the golden key to Russia’s imperial ambitions," says Ilya Pavlenko, a former deputy head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate.
Some of Ukraine’s partners — most notably US President Donald Trump, who last year declared that Ukraine "has no trump cards" — previously hinted that handing over Crimea to Russia could be part of a deal to end the war. But Russia may already be finding that the peninsula is becoming too difficult and too expensive to govern and defend — let alone to maintain the peace and prosperity promised in 2014 for its inhabitants.
"Now we are creating our own trump cards", Pavlenko stressed.
Ordinary people
While Kiev's campaign to disrupt logistics is aimed at weakening Moscow's military power and reputation, it inevitably affects the civilian population of Crimea. In addition to the thousands of Russians Moscow has encouraged to move to the peninsula, many Ukrainian citizens still live there, including the indigenous Crimean Tatars, who have since been subjected to disproportionately harsh repression.
According to Refat Chubarov, chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar People — a representative body banned by Russian authorities and now based in Kiev — the local population should be prepared for even greater hardships ahead. He recommends that people stock up on emergency food and medicine, stay away from Russian military installations, and have a place to hide in case of attack.
"We don't know how all this will end," he admitted.
But could the end be the restoration of Ukrainian control over the peninsula? The last time this seemed realistic was during the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023, and hopes were then dashed by Ukraine’s failure to change the front line.
"People in Crimea are feeling some optimism that this time everything can end in liberation. But they are also saying, "Don’t fool us again, like in 2023," Chubarov said.
Russia has been preparing to seize Crimea for decades — militarily, economically, through education and propaganda, Pavlenko noted. In his view, Ukraine should use an equally wide range of means.
"We have always said that Crimea is Ukraine and Ukraine will use all possible methods to get it back. Crimea cannot be returned by military means alone... We are currently exerting military pressure to enable our diplomats to sit down at the negotiating table and say: "We will not leave Crimea out of the conversation".
Zagorodnyuk believes that Ukraine has approximately a year to use its technological advantage, which currently allows it to put pressure on Russia.
"Of course, Russia will eventually copy what we are doing," he noted. "We definitely cannot afford to waste time.".
Indeed, this could be a window of opportunity for Ukraine to regain some of the southern territories that Russia has controlled since 2022. But while Ukraine is seeking to make the peninsula even more difficult and expensive for Russia to hold than it already is, it will likely be just as difficult and expensive for Ukraine itself to hold it.
"I believe that the liberation of Crimea is possible," Zagorodnyuk said. "But not in the immediate future."