Comment by Emilia Milcheva:
The presidential race already has its first candidate, the first almost candidate and the first strategically silent candidate. What the three have in common is that they strive for the same political image – to appear above-party.
The paradox is that without the support of political parties and their structures, no one can win a presidential election. So the party aspect will be muted, but the political DNA of each candidate will inevitably be visible.
The formula for success
The current head of state Iliyana Yotova announced on BNT that she will run for president through an initiative committee, Prof. Daniel Valchev on bTV – that he would participate as a “civil candidate”.
Former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov will strive for the same formula, but still refuses to confirm his participation, already announced by political leaders. The same is done by Georgi Kandev, who is set to be his vice president, but at least on Nova TV he did not deny that his service to the state will continue in politics.
However, Gyurov is the only candidate who has a chance to turn the elections into a real duel between two political visions for the development of Bulgaria - pro-European and sovereignist. He also has to convince the voters. And Yotova is clearly trying to soften the image with which Radev is associated with the regime in Russia.
In the presidential elections, parties should not appear particularly strong behind their candidate, but without their network of structures, he cannot win. Therefore, the successful candidate has a difficult task - to appear civil enough to attract support beyond his party bases, and at the same time to rely on their sufficiently strong organization. Such a formula has proven to work. It is this balance that made Rumen Radev a successful candidate in 2016. Nominated by the BSP, he campaigned as a candidate who transcended the boundaries of the left. But there is one significant difference with today's candidates - Radev had no political biography before being elected president, he commanded the Bulgarian Air Force.
Each of the three mentioned - Yotova, Valchev and Gyurov, has his own political career, and in Gyurov's case it began only five years ago, when he became an MP from the “We continue the change” (PP).
After years of erosion of trust in parties in majoritarian elections, such as presidential and mayoral, candidates avoid being perceived as “party”. Therefore, initiative committees are increasingly becoming not a civic alternative, but a political technology – a way to maintain party support without being conspicuous.
Unlike other parties, however, the nationalists have no interest in concealing their origins. Their main advantage stems precisely from their clearly stated party and ideological identity. Traditionally, they participate in presidential campaigns with their leaders – this was the case with the chairman of “Ataka” Volen Siderov, and with “Vazrazhdane” Kostadin Kostadinov.
Who is most comfortable for
The early start holds risks for every candidate, but it is comfortable for Yotova. She does not need to build recognition - she was vice president for 9 years, and until the election of a new head of state she remains at “Dondukov” 2 and every day until the elections she works to benefit her public image. Added to this is the favorable political configuration, as she is expected to be recognized by the ruling ¨Progressive Bulgaria¨.
Yotova is already fighting for victory, while the others are still fighting for the right to be candidates. Her political career is closely linked to the BSP, whose press center she headed when the party was in collapse after the national catastrophe in 1996-1997. After that, he was a member of parliament and an MEP from the BSP/PES, but his current position as president, after the resignation of Rumen Radev, is undoubtedly the pinnacle.
The Dean of the Faculty of Law at Sofia University, Prof. Daniel Valchev, puts his possible participation in the conditional mood. Clearly articulated enough, however, to be perceived as a potential candidate. Three months ago, he was “open to thinking” on the topic, and now he is seriously considering it.
Paradoxically, but only at first glance, Valchev seems acceptable for various political configurations. Before his career in academia, he was Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Education in the cabinet of the Triple Coalition, and earlier part of the legal circle of the NMSV. More than ten years ago, “Bivol” published a document on a joint venture in 1997 with Gen. Lyuben Gotsev, considered one of the puppeteers of the transition. He advised former Interior Minister Atanas Semerdzhiev in his capacity as Vice President, as well as Zhelyu Zhelev, who also served in the Ministry of Defense under Dimitar Ludzhev.
In recent months, his name has been linked to both possible support from “Progressive Bulgaria” and GERB. This “universality” shows that he could disperse votes in the center and right if he runs. It is understood from his media appearances that he shows respect and honor for Rumen Radev, especially with his comment on BNT that “for the first time in a long time, I feel at ease when the Bulgarian Prime Minister goes to Brussels”.
After the initial acceleration and high public trust that Andrey Gyurov received as acting Prime Minister, he has been absent from the public conversation on key issues. There are expectations for him to consolidate as a presidential candidate the alternative to Radev's absolute rule. DSB leader Radan Kanev stated on Bulgarian National Radio that this support could come from a wider circle in society than the parliamentaryly represented PP and “Democratic Bulgaria”.
This burdens his candidacy with high expectations, including reducing internal divisions within the democratic community itself.
The essential
The presidential elections will not simply be an election for a head of state. They will show whether the political majority that voted for Rumen Radev's government will also manage to take control of the presidential institution. If this happens, for the first time since the democratic changes, the executive branch and the presidency will be concentrated around the same political center.
Yotova is the candidate of institutional continuity, Valchev - of political networks, and Gyurov - of the political alternative. Three candidates, a choice between two directions.