It seems that the war in Ukraine has entered its absolutely critical stage, in which both sides are striving to secure a decisive advantage before the onset of winter. First of all, it seems that Trump has once again outsmarted Ukraine.
On the one hand, at the last NATO summit in Ankara, he promised Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptor missiles. But on the other hand, he seems to have abandoned this offer this week. This is what British historian and professor Timothy Garton-Ash wrote on his Substack account.
Meanwhile, we are only now beginning to realize the consequences of Trump's catastrophic failure in his war with Iran - one of which is that stocks of key American munitions, especially Patriot missiles, have been depleted to a critical minimum.
This sends a clear signal to Putin that:
a) US support for Ukraine is extremely uncertain
b) Ukraine will not receive new supplies of Patriot interceptor missiles in the near future.
In other words, the warehouses are empty, which leaves Ukraine virtually defenseless against Russian ballistic missile strikes. All of this gives Putin the green light to launch a hellish strike on Ukraine with ballistic missiles and try to accelerate the destruction of its critical infrastructure before winter sets in.
Time is also of the essence for Ukraine, as Russia’s State Duma elections are due next month. If Kiev wants to change the political and economic dynamics of this war, the time is now—by bringing the war back home to Russia and increasing the economic cost to Moscow. This explains the relentless Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and distribution and logistics centers like Wildberry.
Ukraine is also trying to stop Russia’s ballistic missile production in its infancy. Meanwhile, both sides are engaged in a brutal standoff in the Black Sea, destroying hundreds of ships in attacks that risk global consequences - note that oil loading on the CPC pipeline in Novorossiysk is being halted, and 30% of the world's wheat supplies are under threat.
After the State Duma elections, Putin will have to make a critical decision - whether to announce a new wave of forced mobilization. This seems very likely, given the huge losses in the meat grinder on the front lines, which can no longer be compensated by recruiting contract soldiers. Such a mobilization would be extremely unpopular and potentially politically dangerous for Putin, although the risk to him is likely to remain limited if he can convince the public that Russia still has the initiative in the war.
This also explains the move to increase ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine. Overall, it looks like this war will get even more brutal before it starts to improve. The irony of all this is that both at the start of his second term and again at the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump had leverage over Putin that could have been used to achieve peace in Ukraine from a position of strength.
But once again, Trump’s rather chaotic and inconsistent foreign policy has handed that leverage over Putin—notably through his hesitations over granting Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.
Unfortunately, Ukraine is burning while Trump stands idly by.