Putin will not hand over former dictator Assad to Damascus to keep his military bases in Syria. Otherwise, he will lose the trust of his few remaining allies, observers believe.
When the Assad regime collapsed in 2024, the assumptions were that the new Syrian authorities would no longer want to tolerate a Russian presence on their territory. But this turned out to be a mistake. Recently, Russia and Syria signed a memorandum of understanding, i.e. a preliminary agreement to maintain the Russian presence at the Khmeimim air base not far from the Syrian Mediterranean coast and at the naval base in the port of Tartus. It has existed since 1971. Some military experts call this relatively small facility not a base, but a bunker station.
The details of the agreements should be agreed upon in the next three months. It is assumed that the civilian facilities at the two bases, including one of the piers in Tartus, will be transferred to the control of Damascus. However, the other one will remain Russian and, according to information from the „Reuters" agency, Moscow even intends to build a „logistics hub" there.
Judging by everything, the preparation of an agreement on the future of the Russian bases began in October 2025 with the leader of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, in Moscow.
The reserve units - in Syria, the Wagner Group - in Africa
„Since coming to power, al-Sharaa has been very cautious about Russia. He never claimed that he would completely end its presence," Denis Kolesnik, an expert at the Center for Middle East Studies in Paris, told DW. "Moreover, the Syrian armed forces still depend on supplies of spare parts from Russia - they use equipment purchased during Assad's time. I think that is also why the Russian pier in Tartus is being preserved."
At the height of the civil war, the number of the Russian contingent in Syria ranged between 4,500 and 7,500 fighters, not counting the Wagner mercenaries, the expert noted to DW. "Now there are no more than 1,000 Russian military personnel in the country, who mainly guard the bases. They are unlikely to become much more," Kolesnik predicted.
Israeli analyst Sergei Auslender calls for caution in drawing conclusions until the memorandum has become a final agreement. But if this happens, its main function will be to ensure the Russian presence in Africa, he believes. “In this case, the air base in Khmeimim will probably turn out to be more important than Tartus - it will become a transfer airport, a transit point for transporting mercenaries and cargo to Chad, the Central African Republic and Niger”, Auslander believes. “In addition, Russia is currently maintaining its allied relations with Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Libya. It will use both Tartus and Khmeimim to support his Libyan National Army (LNA).”
A small Russian contingent is deployed in eastern and central Libya controlled by Haftar, training his military and repairing Russian equipment that is in service with the LNA. For Putin, Libya is also a supply base for mercenaries in Africa.
Moscow will not send Bashar al-Assad to his death
What could Putin have promised al-Sharaa in exchange for maintaining his presence in Syria? “He could have simply offered to pay a good price. But theoretically, he could have promised to consider handing over Bashar al-Assad to the new authorities. This would greatly strengthen relations with Syria,” says Sergey Auslander.
On August 11, a court in Damascus sentenced the former dictator to death. But Denis Kolesnik categorically does not believe that Moscow can hand him over. “Sending an ally who trusted him to certain death, even if he is already a former one, would destroy Putin's reputation in the eyes of the few allies he has left in the so-called post-Soviet space and in the countries of the global South. I am sure that Assad is safe as long as Putin is in the Kremlin."
Meanwhile, there are lively debates about who will gain more from the future deal on the bases - Moscow or Damascus. “The agreements on the bases will not turn Putin and al-Sharaa into allies, but they will allow Putin to maintain his dignity. In this sense, the agreement is a success for the Kremlin," a diplomat working in the region, who wished to remain anonymous, said in an interview with DW.
Denny Kolesnik agrees with this, but suggests that the Syrian leader is gaining more from the negotiations. “Ahmed al-Sharaa is thus demonstrating that “his” Syria will not become a vassal of any of the regional countries - neither Turkey, nor the UAE, nor Saudi Arabia. At the same time, Syria's dependence on Russia will decrease more and more. If we think about it, in practically every area, including arms supplies, the Emirates can offer Syria much more than Moscow."