The first 100 days confirmed what was expected: a highly personalized, vertical and command-directed government. Radev continues to function as a political "Ego-ideal" – figure on which a large part of society projects its hope for order, justice and retribution. There is something of the classic "messianic fantasy": the strong man comes, names the guilty and returns the state to its place. Nothing new under the sun!
This was commented on "Facebook" by political psychology lecturer Ivan Ivanov.
However, the prime minister's post already brings Radev into the Freudian "reality principle". As president, you can point out the problems and brand the guilty. As prime minister, you have to solve them – and bear responsibility for the failure. For now, his personal authority carries the cabinet much more than the cabinet supports his authority. The government increasingly resembles a "colossus on clay feet": a strong leader on a weak political and personnel foundation. The main problem is that Radev still speaks and reacts more like a corrective president than like a prime minister who manages the consequences of his own decisions.
What is the forecast?
After idealization, "de-idealization" naturally comes. Society gradually ceases to believe in the "heavy legacy" and begins to ask the far more unpleasant question: "what did you change?" So far, we have seen more requests for change, double communication, and a search for external culprits than convincing results.
If Radev manages to turn personal authority into institutional capacity, a competent team, and visible results, trust may stabilize (i.e., we should soon expect changes in the government). If the over-centralization, weak team and ambiguous communication continue, they will turn every management problem directly into a problem for Radev himself. With personalized power, there is nowhere to shift responsibility – when everything goes through the leader, both success and failure become his.
The first 100 days were a credit of trust. The next 100 days are coming to an end. And now the government's solvency will be looked at, not the promise.
What are the risks to democracy?
The most serious risk is the "personification of power" – the imperceptible transition from “Radev leads the change“ to “Radev IS the change“. From there, it is only one step to the suggestion that criticism of the leader is an attack on change, the state, or even the “national interest“.
The second risk is the psychodynamic “split” of “us“ and “them”, the honorable and the guilty, the patriots and the enemies. This rhetoric mobilizes followers, but gradually turns the political opponent not into a competitor, but into a morally suspect object.
The third risk is “groupthink”. With a strong leader, a stable majority, and a weak opposition, loyalty easily begins to be worth more than competence, and unanimity - more than critical argument. The most dangerous power is not necessarily the one that does not allow criticism. Sometimes it is the one that continues to formally allow it, but also to ridicule it.
And the opposition?
Here there is a huge chance - the presidential elections. But time is no longer working in its favor. Against a highly personalized power center, you cannot come up with a collection of party egos and with Freud's "narcissism of small differences" to compete with a close partner, not with the power center. This will show whether we have real opposition behavior.
A candidate is needed who can turn the elections from a party tournament into a choice between two models of the state: concentration or balance; personal power or institutions; political dependence or a corrective president. It is increasingly clear that this candidate should be Andrey Gyurov.
After years of chaos, Radev has returned the feeling that the state has a center. This is his real psychological success. Now comes the much more difficult political test: to prove that the center is the Constitution, the institutions and the law - and not the leader himself.
Otherwise we will not have changed the model.
We will have changed only the person at the top.
Interesting winter days are ahead. They may not be so cold.