MAGA: "Make America Great Again". That was US President Donald Trump's promise to the American people. Elect him, and the country would regain its self-confidence and return to a golden age of internal unity, economic vitality, national sovereignty, and global influence. It was a seductive vision, especially for those Americans who had been hard hit by globalization and believed that immigrants and "globalists" undermine the country from within, writes Stephen M. Walt, a professor of international relations at Harvard University, for Foreign Policy.
"As we approach the halfway point of Trump's second term, there is little doubt that he is one of the most influential presidents in American history. Unfortunately, almost all of the consequences of his actions have been harmful—not just for most people in the United States but also for America's relative power and standing in the world. His inner circle and family members may benefit, but the cumulative effect of his actions will not be a return to greatness but a weaker and more divided America.
Let me list the reasons.
1. Destroying Trust in American Promises
The importance of trust is sometimes overstated, but other countries will be less willing to cooperate with Washington if they don’t trust it to keep its promises.
As he has throughout his business career, which has been riddled with lawsuits and financial failures, Trump has repeatedly proven that his threats are mostly empty bravado and his promises mean nothing. He walked away from the successful nuclear deal with Iran (wasn’t that great?), and now he’s scorning the very trade deal he negotiated with Canada and Mexico during his first term, which he called the best deal ever. His ever-changing approach to tariffs, repeated threats to withdraw support for key allies, and the inexplicable withdrawal of his offer to let Ukraine produce Patriot missiles have all contributed to the U.S.’s failure to act. make it abundantly clear that his word is worth nothing. Zero. Nothing.
This has real consequences. For example, Trump's well-deserved reputation as a double-dealer and unpredictable is one of the reasons he is having such a hard time ending the war with Iran. Iranian leaders don't believe a word he says - and why should they? - and understandably want concrete concessions up front before they will release him from the pressure. This is also why more and more countries around the world are trying not to bet everything on one partner and are looking for more reliable allies.
2. Reducing US military power
Despite unprecedented spending, the boasting about "lethal power" of the United States and efforts to ensure that male service members have enough testosterone, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have made the country’s armed forces weaker and undermined the United States’ ability to deter attacks on its partners.
How? By launching a reckless war with Iran, depleting supplies of key weapons, and keeping ships, squadrons, and service members on combat duty for months, reportedly leading to a wave of suicide attempts.
These actions have drained valuable military capacity for little benefit, shown potential adversaries where the country’s vulnerabilities lie, and weakened service members’ morale in potentially tragic ways. While Trump and Hegseth squander American military resources, potential future adversaries arm, educate, train, and prepare.
To make matters worse, Trump and Hegseth are trying to politicize the military and turn it into a loyal part of the MAGA movement. Hegseth is actively seeking to remove officers he deems "woke," firing or denying promotions to disproportionate numbers of women and racial minorities—despite their excellent service records and the recommendations of senior officers who know them best—and trying to impose ideological unanimity throughout the military system, including the military academies.
This is a dangerous development. As the late Samuel Huntington famously argued in his book "The Soldier and the State" (The Soldier and the State), the professionalism of the armed forces, based on a set of norms and an institutional culture that keeps the military above political struggles, has been a tremendous asset throughout our history.
Officers swear an oath to the Constitution, not to a party or a president, and are expected to follow the principle of "Duty, Honor, Country". They have not been evaluated by which party they support, and senior officers have voluntarily served under representatives of both parties over the years. While senior military leaders (and the rest of the so-called military-industrial complex) have significant influence on national security matters, they remain subject to civilian control and have never been a tool that one party can use to seize or illegally retain power.
I think that is still true today, but the trends are worrying. And I have no doubt that if Trump could turn the military into a loyal instrument of his own power, he would do so. If he succeeds, they will become an even less effective fighting force.
3. Destroying Diplomatic Capacity
Marco Rubio has held many positions—including secretary of state, national security adviser, and acting director of the National Archives—but sometimes he reminds me of those photos of missing children that used to appear on milk cartons. I want to ask, "Have you seen this guy?".
He has been largely isolated from the war with Iran, Ukraine, and the other major issues facing the country today, while he and Trump have systematically undermined the United States' diplomatic capacity and international presence in ways that could take decades to repair.
Under Rubio's leadership at the State Department, the United States has unilaterally withdrawn from more than 60 international organizations, while China continues to expand its participation in them. He has closed consulates and diplomatic posts abroad and left dozens of ambassadorial posts vacant.
A comprehensive survey by the American Foreign Service Association found that 98% of respondents reported low morale, and 86% said that these actions were interfering with their ability to do their jobs. The title of the report says it all: the country’s diplomatic institutions are "on the brink of breaking".
This might not be a big problem if the special envoys Trump prefers to rely on were highly competent and effective. But the performance of amateur diplomats like Steve Whitkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as Vice President J.D. Vance, shows that this is not the case.
4. Undermining U.S. scientific superiority
Leadership in science and technology has long been a pillar of the United States’ global power. As China clearly understands, scientific capability will be even more important in the future.
What has Trump done to respond to this challenge? He has cut federal support for a wide range of scientific research, attacked universities under false pretenses, appointed ignorant and unqualified science skeptics—like Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—to key positions, propagated their false claims through his own statements and social media posts, appointed a man with no scientific background as his science advisor, and actively promoted the belief that ignorance is preferable to knowledge and expertise.
Are these actions having an effect? And how.
According to the American Institute of Physics, PhD students in this field are leaving the United States at the highest rate in 30 years—almost double the rate just a year earlier.
The resulting brain drain in this field (and others) will leave the United States less knowledgeable, innovative, productive, and secure than it otherwise would be. It’s an own goal that will likely cede scientific supremacy to Washington’s most serious rival.
5. Missing the Green Transition
A related fallacy stems from Trump’s longstanding denial of climate change, his opposition to renewable energy, and his unwavering commitment to burning more fossil fuels.
This is madness, as anyone who has read the scientific literature on the subject or followed long-term climate trends knows.
Not only will this lead to more serious climate problems, more climate-related deaths, and immense human suffering, but Trump’s policies ensure that China will dominate the green technologies of the future—solar and wind power, batteries, and so on. - while the US will dominate 19th century flue technology.
Unless you believe that nuclear fusion will become economically viable and widely used in the near future, the way Trump is handling the climate challenge will leave the US weaker and poorer. And warmer.
6. Undermining the rule of law
Trump's disregard for law and order is well documented. He has gone to great lengths to shield himself from any legal constraints, while using the court system to self-deal with people who have had the misfortune to incur his wrath.
The confirmation of his personal lawyer—the endlessly helpful Todd Blanchett—as U.S. attorney general is just the latest step in this campaign. His efforts have been aided by an ideologically close and pliant Supreme Court that has limited his actions on several occasions but has mostly upheld them and given him additional powers.
Why does this matter? Because confidence in the integrity of the American judicial system reassures both Americans and foreigners who want to do business or invest in the country.
The confidence that laws will be interpreted and applied fairly, impartially, and transparently reduces the risk of arbitrary or politically motivated decisions, and therefore the risk of doing business.
Foreigners will not sever all ties with the country if they begin to believe that the American judicial system has become politicized and corrupt, because there are many countries where these problems are even more severe. But the United States will have squandered one of the characteristics that made it a particularly attractive partner in the past.
7. Threat to Election Integrity
Democracy depends on free and fair elections and on citizens’ belief that the results accurately reflect the votes cast.
From the beginning, Trump has cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral system, most notably through his unsubstantiated and repeatedly repeated claim that he actually won the 2020 election.
Indeed, the clearest example of election malfeasance was Trump’s own attempt to reverse his defeat in 2020—by encouraging an angry mob to storm Congress, pressuring state election officials to find more votes for him, and trying to get former Vice President Mike Pence to break his oath and refuse to certify the results.
If you want evidence of genuine election fraud, you need look no further.
The danger here is that undermining public trust in elections will will lead losing candidates to reject the will of the majority of voters, to refuse to accept the decisions of officials they wrongly believe were elected by fraud, and will make them easy prey for conspiracy theories that further divide the country.
Nothing can be more destructive to a sense of patriotism and civic unity than the belief that elections are constantly rigged - and that is exactly what Trump and his entourage do.
8. Abandoning the System of Checks and Controls
The growing power of the executive branch did not begin with Trump, and some of the factors that accelerated it during his second term—such as the inaction of Congress and a Supreme Court oriented toward the concept of strong presidential power—existed before his reelection in 2024.
And he is far from the first president to resent the limits on his powers and would like to simply do whatever he wants without needing congressional approval and judicial support.
But Trump’s willingness to overturn the system of checks and controls enshrined in the Constitution is unparalleled in American history, and the long-term consequences will be severe.
For example, limiting the perceived political independence of the Federal Reserve will make foreign investors more cautious, while removing limits on the president’s actions will heighten other countries’ concerns about the reliability and predictability of the United States.
And when presidents can do whatever they want without having to win public support or even defend their position to Congress, ill-conceived disasters like the current war with Iran are more likely to occur.
Unless you are convinced that Trump is an infallible instrument of divine providence - despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary - this attack on the constitutional order of the United States should worry you. And a lot.
9. Abandoning civilized political debate
More than anyone else, Trump is responsible for the coarsening and vulgarization of political discourse in the United States.
This is partly due to his willingness and ability to lie shamelessly—a trait that has infected much of the Republican Party—but also to his penchant for vulgar insults, violent rhetoric, incoherent tirades in which opponents are portrayed as criminals, traitors, or worse, and his all-too-obvious contempt for half the country's citizens.
His followers, led by Vance, have adopted the same tactics.
Further dividing Americans against each other and turning what should be serious debates on complex issues into childish insult contests is a recipe for continued polarization, political gridlock, and stupid decisions.
Our enemies must take great pleasure in watching our own President and Vice President of the United States do the work for them.
10. Destroying U.S. Soft Power
When you put all of this together, the result is a real-time collapse of the once significant "soft power" of the United States.
While Trump is popular among some like-minded politicians—most notably in Latin America—the United States as a whole has suffered a remarkable decline in the eyes of much of the world.
Its flawed democratic system no longer inspires admiration, its crumbling infrastructure repels rather than impresses foreign visitors, and Trump's predatory policies have alienated countries that were once among the most pro-American in the world—such as Canada and Denmark.
Worst of all, his chaotic decision-making and reliance on unqualified subordinates have undermined the aura of competence on which lasting global influence depends.
When the United States enjoys a reputation only slightly better than North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, or Israel, something has gone seriously wrong.
To be fair, Trump's second term is not complete. failure.
He helped some pro-Trump politicians get elected in several small countries, wrung short-term economic concessions from some of the US's partners, and got FIFA to overturn a ban on a US men's national team player during the last World Cup - to no avail, as the team lost its next match.
He even managed to attend a NATO summit without causing a major diplomatic incident.
But his main achievement in his second term is that he and his entourage are getting richer.
This, I suppose, is no small achievement, and may be the real reason he got into politics in the first place.
His family will be much richer when his term is over, but the country will be weaker, sicker, and more embittered.
If it wasn't obvious before, it certainly is now: "Making America Great Again" has always been just a scam".