Joy in one camp, shock in the other: in the US midterm elections, the opposition Democrats not only won an unexpectedly large victory, but also took control of both chambers of Congress. Here are five conclusions we can draw from the election results.
1. American democracy is not in decline
The storming of the Capitol, attempts to change election rules, bypassing Congress through executive orders and much more: there was widespread concern that under Donald Trump, American democracy was rapidly disintegrating and being replaced by an authoritarian system. But US democratic institutions have evidently proved more resilient than many feared.
Many voters stood up to Trump’s claims to unlimited power. They want the institutional checks and balances to function again. According to a post-election poll by the Associated Press, 30 percent of voters identified the state of democracy as the country’s most important issue. Seventy percent said that Congress had so far not exercised its oversight functions over the president to a sufficient extent. With the election results, voters sent a clear signal about the need for stronger parliamentary oversight of the government.
In principle, Donald Trump may continue trying to govern through executive orders, bypassing Congress. But lawmakers now have a decisive means of exerting pressure – the budget. Democrats can deny the president the funds he urgently needs to pursue his political aims. They can also establish congressional investigative committees that would put the government under serious pressure to justify itself.
2. Democrats can win elections – and how!
For a long time, Democrats struggled mainly with themselves. They lacked convincing leaders, a common line and a clear answer to the question of how the party wanted to win a majority again. Now it has impressively demonstrated that it should by no means be written off.
Its results in many traditionally Republican states are particularly sensational. Democrats achieved successes even in Texas and South Carolina, while in Kansas they elected a senator for the first time since 1932. At the same time, the elections have brought new faces to the fore: younger, significantly more progressive politicians who can give the party a new direction.
The most remarkable success belongs to the “Democratic Socialists of America”, who take more left-wing positions than the Democratic Party as a whole. At least five candidates backed by the organization are entering the House of Representatives for the first time. They support stronger social policies focused on affordable housing, healthcare, workers’ rights and clearer limits on the influence of major corporations.
“The prevailing view had been that such candidates could not win at the national level,” political analyst Brandon Born of the Bertelsmann Foundation told DW. But now some of them have done just that. Their success could change domestic political debates over the direction Democrats should take in the future and how they can win back voters with an eye to the 2028 presidential election.
3. Republicans face a serious debate over their direction
With the Republicans, the situation is the opposite.
Donald Trump has already made it clear that he does not consider himself responsible for the defeat. Had he himself been on the ballot, the results would have been quite different, he wrote on his Truth Social network.
But hardly everyone in his party shares that view. Critics who had been pushed to the margins in recent months and years are now gaining confidence. The question of whether Trump’s policies are the right path for Republicans can no longer be ignored.
And this is about more than a temporary electoral defeat. Trump cannot run for a third term in 2028, meaning Republicans must start thinking about his political successor. Who will take over the leadership? And above all – with what program?
The current electoral defeat could seriously accelerate these debates; accordingly, a power struggle over the political future of the Republican Party is now inevitable.
4. The shadow winner is in Tehran
The election results will also have international consequences. Developments will be watched particularly closely in Tehran and Moscow. For Iran’s leadership, Trump’s defeat is good news, since the war against Iran and the economic burden associated with it cost the Republicans many votes.
The rising cost of living was the decisive issue for many Americans. The consequences of the war in Iran led to a significant increase in fuel prices. As a result, Trump came under strong domestic political pressure to reach a lasting agreement with Tehran.
Overall, the US president is currently working to reduce the costs of his foreign policy – particularly where it is especially controversial. Immediately before the midterm elections, for example, he announced that he no longer wanted to provide military aid to Israel in the future, and would do so two years earlier than planned.
For Ukraine, the situation remains difficult. The election results could prompt Trump to move closer to Moscow. The scale of the economic pressure to reduce energy and fuel prices in America was already evident from the highly controversial diesel deal with Moscow. To continue easing the pressure, he may seek other deals with Moscow as well, which would make the situation even more difficult for Kyiv.
“It is depressing that five years after the start of the full-scale invasion, we cannot hope for any victories,” Ukrainian lawmaker Kira Rudik told DW. “Rather, we hope that the people who come to power will not be pro-Russian and will thwart efforts by Russia to return to the world political stage.”
At the same time, those who have long criticized Trump’s policy toward Russia and called for stronger support for Ukraine are also gaining strength. Critics from various parties who oppose an overly accommodating stance toward Moscow could use the election results to expand their influence in Congress.
5. The elections also have consequences for the rest of the world
The US midterm election results could also change transatlantic relations, says Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund. “In many respects, there will be a very significant difference for Europe – and in many very important areas,” he told DW. Democrats may try to restore dialogue between Europe and the United States. With their majorities, they now also gain greater control over Trump’s policy toward NATO – they can influence decisions on the budget and military funding and make it more difficult in Congress to impose any planned restrictions on US support. Joint positions could also carry more weight in the area of climate protection.
“Even simply restoring some degree of trust and predictability – regardless of how it is achieved – would already make a major difference,” Lesser explains.
Author: Thomas Latschan