Dr. Rumena Filipova, founder of the Institute for Global Analyzes , in an interview for the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the world in focus" on Radio "Focus"
How does Bulgarian society relate to the European Union?
This is a continuing trend in the attitudes of Bulgarians, namely the categorical support for the country's membership in the European Union. And in fact, we see that the results for the beginning of 2024 also show this, namely 71% of the Bulgarians asked would like to continue the country's membership in the Union in the event of a referendum on remaining or leaving. And in fact we notice that there is also a change in that there are 3.5% fewer of those asked who would like to leave the European Union compared to 2023.
Support for membership in NATO and the perception of the USA as a key strategic partner of Sofia are gradually growing, you also point out in your latest research. Who is contributing to this in your opinion and why, if Bulgaria is getting closer to its allies, the distance remains?
These are one of the most important changes in public opinion compared to 2023, namely that Bulgarians' support for the country's membership in NATO is increasing. I.e. at the moment, 62% of those asked would like to continue Bulgaria's membership in the Alliance in a possible referendum, which is an increase of 4.4% compared to last year.
Also regarding the USA – more and more Bulgarians believe that the USA is one of the most key strategic partners for Bulgaria, and we should note that, for comparison, in 2023, more of the surveyed Bulgarians indicated Russia as a strategic partner, and in this year the ranking of strategic preferences changes and the USA is a preferred strategic partner by more Bulgarians. There are several reasons for this.
First, we must say that civil society initiatives to fight against disinformation are increasingly visible, and this disinformation is pro-Kremlin, but also anti-Western, anti-NATO and anti-American in specificity. So we have to celebrate the efforts of civil society. But I would also say the clear Euro-Atlantic orientation of the previous government, as it had a clearly defined pro-Western direction, and I suppose that this convinced a large part of Bulgarians that it is important for Bulgaria to be a worthy and full-fledged ally within the European Union and NATO.
Because you are making a comparison with previous years, you also mentioned Russia a little while ago: What is the attitude towards pro-Russian attitudes and what part of Bulgarian society reinforces these characteristics?
We really have to note that despite the positive changes regarding NATO and the perception of the USA, we have to say that there are also long-lasting trends, these are the traditional pro-Russian attitudes in Bulgarian society, which are largely the result of historical distortions, from historical propaganda about the seemingly forever close ties between Bulgaria and Russia. And in fact, we see that even in 2024, the Bulgarians continue not to recognize Russia, but also China as a strategic threat. I.e. the majority of surveyed Bulgarians, about 57%, believe that the Kremlin does not pose a threat to Bulgaria, and an even larger percentage, 70%, believe that Beijing does not pose a danger.
Why are the different regions in Bulgaria the basis of the division that is outlined in terms of demographic data? What did you find with the latest research?
Actually, this is extremely interesting and is a trend that is not so often mentioned in sociological surveys, namely that there is a division between the regions, especially in terms of Bulgaria's strategic orientation along the East-West axis. And in fact, the survey shows that the North-Eastern region of Bulgaria significantly differs from all others in terms of public opinion. I give an example – support for Bulgaria's membership in NATO reaches 75% in the North-East region, compared to the average value of 62% for the entire country.
Also regarding the European Union, support reaches 83%. I give a comparison again – the average value for Bulgaria is around 71%. Also a large percentage, up to 40% in the Northeast region would prefer and realize that the USA is an important and most important strategic partner for Bulgaria. I give a comparison for all other regions in Bulgaria, this percentage is only about 13%. I.e. I see some very significant differences.
But what are the abstract concepts about people – do you also consider this in this policy-related report? Or in general, which topics are misunderstood by Bulgarian society?
An example of abstract concepts is liberal democracy – what it is, what are its main characteristics, how it is compatible with the so-called Bulgarian national character or traditions, but also global issues related to international relations, the global confrontation at the moment, especially between the Western world and China, and also Russia . I.e. we account for these facts in the large number of "I don't know" responses. or "Can't answer“. I.e. has the clearest understanding and greatest certainty regarding the assessment of the political system in Bulgaria - how it functions.
Here we have great disapproval and dissatisfaction with the actual functioning of democracy. But when, for example, we ask people what liberal democracy means and how it is compatible with the values of Bulgarians, we see greater uncertainty, especially among young people. And I can give an example: 33%, which is really a large percentage, answer that they do not know if liberal democracy is compatible with Bulgarian national values and identity.
Also a large percentage of them, 44% for example, say that they do not know whether representatives of the non-governmental sector are foreign agents. Various reasons can be sought for this, especially in education about the system in Bulgaria, which remains unreformed, and in fact it does not help young Bulgarians to have an informed understanding of what democracy is as an abstract concept, in general, how to navigate in social and political trends.
Young people are a very important segment, you also pay attention to it in your report. You also mentioned some of the trends you've noticed with them. But in general, what contribution do young people have today to everything that is happening, and what are your observations?
It must be said that the trend we established at the Institute for Global Analysis, and also as part of the articles we publish on the subject, that the views of young Bulgarians do not differ so significantly and significantly from the views of their - great compatriots in Bulgaria. I.e. contrary to expectations, young people are not more progressive, democratic or pro-Western. Let me give an example of the feeling of threat from Russia.
Again, a very large percentage, the majority of young Bulgarians – 52%, do not see Russia as a threat, and as a general value across the whole society we see that it is about 57%. I.e. values are very similar in themselves. Also, the other worrying trend is regarding far-right nationalists. Here, even young people see less of a threat than all other age groups. For example, 40% of young Bulgarians between 18 and 34% see a threat from far-right nationalists, but this percentage is much higher in other age groups – in the 55 plus age group - 10% more than that, i.e. already 50% consider far-right groups to be a problem in society.
On the eve of the European Parliament elections, why do you consider that Bulgarians are not convinced "Europeanists"?
This is because, on the one hand, Bulgarians have always categorically supported Bulgaria's membership in the European Union, but we must note two other important trends, which perhaps distance Bulgaria from the center or the core of the European Union. First, that Bulgarians often feel like an object and not a subject of European policies, and this is what we see in the survey – a huge percentage, 71% think that Brussels dictated to us what to do and Bulgaria is hardly voiceless and cannot influence the decisions, which is certainly not the case, but it is a matter of perception.
And the other negative trend, I would say, is that mostly Bulgarians are oriented towards the benefits, the goods, the instrumental goods that they can get from the European Union, such as the opportunity to travel, to work, but they are more little oriented on the value views and value similarities and norms that make the European Union ultimately a society of shared norms and values, and not only of common goods.
The study is about to be officially presented. Tell us a little more about the event.
The event will take place on May 13, Monday at 4:00 p.m. in the CUM building, and this will be a public discussion of the results, which we will also publish in English and Bulgarian on the website of the Institute for Global Analysis on Monday . I am also pleased to announce that internationally recognized author who works on media disinformation and historical propaganda Jason Steinhauer will be our guest and we will discuss the results together.
Your research has been noticed by major global media, you mentioned us in the music break here. Share about it.
Yes, I am happy to say that the topic of the views of young people in Bulgaria, but also in comparison with their peers in other Central and Eastern European countries, received attention from a variety of European media, including in Denmark, but also in Spain. Their daily El País published an extensive article on the subject.
So this is definitely a topic to which we should pay more attention and work to improve the socio-political attitudes of the young. Because I have to mention that the reasons for these worrying trends are first, as I mentioned, in the education system, but also the growing sense of political and economic isolation on the part of the young.
I.e. they do not think that their legitimate interests and priorities as a group in society, like any other, are sufficiently well represented by the political parties in Bulgaria, but I would say that in other countries in Europe as well. They are also dissatisfied with the economic opportunities provided to them. So it is important to work and improve political communication with young people, but also the opportunities for social mobility.