The past weekend was indeed quite wild, no matter how you look at it. A few days ago, Trump mentioned that “very bad things are coming for Russia”, and Gen. Zaluzhny, Ukraine's ambassador to London, appeared in Kiev at a conference and developed a “concept for redirecting the war to the territory of Russia” in a report. And did the “English patient” has given a signal to continue the war to the Ukrainians with new different strategies, there is no need for an answer.
Ukraine celebrated with unbridled delight a “grandiose science fiction blow”.
He smuggled trucks into the “heart of Russia”, packed with drones operated by Russians and opened their roofs by remote control to hit Russian bombers from the so-called nuclear triad. They say the drivers did not know what they were carrying. Just like in the attack on the Crimean bridge some time ago and in the spirit of the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, Hamas or even in Iran.
The Russian long-range planes that were hit had no roofed hangars, as is the rule, but this is a detail for the analysis of the generals in the Russian army. Because there are comments that the planes themselves were “sitting like ducks on the asphalt”.
Zelensky boasted that the operation had been prepared for about a year and a half and cost a lot of money and effort. His? However, in the West, there is talk that Russia was preparing “Zeus' Lightning” to strike Ukraine if there was a refusal to negotiate a peaceful outcome to the war. But it turns out that a Ukrainian “Spider Web” preceded the Russian attack. And whether there were Chinese drones in the trucks is a topic for discussion at another level.
According to Moscow, the goal of the Ukrainian terrorist attacks, as they called them, was for Russia not to show up for the negotiations in Istanbul. With an ultimatum, the Kiev delegation would leave the negotiations, accusing the Russians of not wanting peace and not having concerns about reputational risk. Losses are losses, but the Kremlin's calculations are that they are not fatal.
In this case, the important thing is that the war is definitely entering a new stage. Until recently, Kiev's Western allies were hesitant to allow Ukraine to use weapons supplied by NATO countries against Russian targets on Russian territory for fear of provoking World War III. Germany dared and decided through its new Chancellor Merz to announce that it would provide its long-range missiles to the Ukrainians, the "Taurus", and this is clearly the new strategy for a place on the geopolitical stage. But after accelerated rearmament and preparation of the army for military operations "in 5 years".
The first step in this direction is the sending of 5,000 German soldiers to Lithuania, which does not border Russia and, imagine, there can be no reproach for stationing NATO troops on the border of Russia. Well, there are rumors that these 5 thousand soldiers have emptied military warehouses and barracks, but this is a significant sign of the kind of “we are here”. The blood of Merz's grandfather, who served Nazi Germany, does not give peace, they say in Moscow.
Trump said that Zelensky has no trump card in the battle with Russia, but drones turned out to be not only the only trump card, but also this operation on Russian territory is considered a success. Whether it is devastating is debatable. It is a ridiculous statement that the “friends” did not know about this operation. There is no way without remote control, satellite communication terminals, intelligence data from space and such skills in cyberspace, which as technological achievements is a privilege for the old enemies of the Russians.
The undeniable fact remains that drones have changed the way wars will be fought from now on. You will be standing in a control room full of screens, from where some military man will direct actions and coordinate. Or maybe some guys in front of laptops will do the same job. The question in such a situation is whether Ukraine can send mobile platforms anywhere in vast Russia.
Will they be able to stop them? It is not a question of strengthening air defense, but whether there will be weapons against drones and, accordingly, a new level of activity of the relevant services. Because Ukrainians are not afraid to speak Russian and pretend to be Russians in Russia. Otherwise, they would have banned this language in their country. One thing is for sure - they have put the world and their own citizens in a situation of fear of a devastating response from Putin.
A nuclear strike, which Moscow has the right to do according to its military doctrine after Russian strategic bases were attacked? Hardly, but a response will have to be given. Otherwise, the anger of the Russians will escalate to the point of being impossible to control. The question is, will the Russians find a cure for the Ukrainian drones and explosive devices that have been stationed at strategic sites for months?
In fact, drone attacks on strategic bombers in Russia are not everything. There were also train accidents and collapsed bridges, including an attack on the Crimean bridge. Civilians died. The Russians immediately admitted to "explosions", and the West wrote about an "incident". But everyone knew that Ukraine was bringing the war to Russian territory and the attacks were planned.
The goal is to hurt ordinary Russians. Because it has long been known that Putin tried in every way to protect the population from the war. Even Russians often say that the last three years have been some of the best for them since the collapse of the USSR. Inflation is high, but disposable incomes are growing faster. There is no unemployment. All the famous Western brands have already returned to Russia and the choice of goods, at least in large cities, has become even wider. Many Chinese goods, from “friendly countries” and so the sanctions have not affected everyday life.
Will this affect the outcome of the war? It is doubtful. Because at this stage, Russians in general will not turn against Putin or protest. Even if they start blowing up their apartments, they say in East Germany. His popularity remains 80% and has been like that for the last 3 years. Some say that “this war thing is a stupid idea, but we are at war and it is better to win it”. It is their Russian business, but the reality today does not change the balance of power. No matter what else the Russophobes say.
It is claimed that Russia still has 5,500 nuclear missiles and many options for delivering them. Drones cannot damage the Russian nuclear submarines that are around the east coast of the United States. There are also a certain number of "Iskanders" in Kaliningrad and Belarus, which are aimed at Ukraine.
To say that Russia has been brought to its knees is frivolous. And whether a Russian "Pearl Harbor" has occurred is also not very certain. They have floating bombs. Some even remain from World War II. But it is a fact that the war in Ukraine is turning from a classic conflict into a partisan resistance of a smaller party against a larger one.
The Russians call it a terrorist struggle. But this can last for years through sabotage and truly terrorist destruction. It is clear that Putin is ready for such a war. Of course, with "brutal punishments". It is no coincidence that Medinsky, at the head of the Russian negotiating team in Istanbul, mentioned that Russia fought with Sweden for 21 years and won. They want their place among the troika that will divide the world into spheres of influence in a new multipolar world.
This is definitely Putin's goal. The rest will be swallowed up. They remain far apart with Ukraine. Moscow strikes on May 23 with devastating missile strikes, and Ukraine attacks with drones on Russian territory. Some define it as "bleeding their noses before sitting down to talk about peace."
The sad thing is that the war will continue and people will die. And whether this weekend's Ukrainian drone attack on Russian territory will mark the beginning of the end of Trump-Putin relations is a question of increased difficulty. For now, Putin is refusing to meet with Trump, but the American president will meet, they say, with Xi Jinping this week. Events simply need to be watched and followed carefully. And read between the lines. By the way, do we have an American ambassador in Sofia? I'm just asking for orientation.