A wave of pessimistic forecasts is sweeping the cryptocurrency markets, while Bitcoin is trading around $86,000 - down more than 30% from its October price record. Future market analysts are warning of potential corrections ranging from moderate to drastic.
Veteran trader &Peter Brandt issued one of the most alarming warnings on December 14, stating that Bitcoin's parabolic growth pattern has been broken. Historically, similar breaches have led to declines of over 80%.
A retracement of 80% from the peak of $126,000 reached on October 6 would put the cryptocurrency around $25,000.
Global macroeconomic analyst Luke Groyman, known for his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin, has been defending the devaluation of fiat currencies, the mood has shifted to a pessimistic short-term forecast.
He predicts a drop to $40,000 by 2026, citing Bitcoin's failure to reach new highs against gold, attempts to break key moving averages, and growing concerns about quantum computing and its potential to compromise the mechanisms behind cryptocurrency.
Technical analyst Ali Martins identifies $86,000 as a critical support level, warning that a break below it could lead to a deeper correction to $70,000.
The most extreme forecast comes from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Mike McGlynn, who predicts an 88% collapse to $10,000 by 2026. describe the current environment as "post-inflationary deflation".
These gloomy predictions come against the backdrop of an expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan on December 19, which markets rate as 98% likely. Historical models suggest that Bitcoin has fallen by 20-30% since previous hikes by the Bank of Japan.
British banking giant Warslaus added to the pessimism by predicting that 2026 could be a "weak year" for cryptocurrencies without significant catalysts. Spot trading volumes have fallen by 66% since their peak in January 2025, falling from over $500 billion to around $250 billion in mid-December. The bank cut its price target for Coinbase shares from $357 to $291, citing shrinking volumes and rising operating expenses.
Additionally, an 8% drop in Bitcoin mining network hashrate power due to the shutdown of a large percentage of "miners" in the Chinese region of Xinjiang.
About 400,000 machines are off the grid, as Bitcoin is currently worth around $90,000, and mining is at a loss, even after depreciation.
In response, leading mining companies such as Core Scientific, IREN, Marathon Digital, and Riot Platforms have announced plans to repurpose capacity towards AI and high-performance computing, seeking more stable cash flow in an inhospitable market environment.