The most likely thing that will end the war in Ukraine is exhaustion, believes British professor Mark Galeotti, a historian and political scientist, a fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
In his regular analysis for "The Sunday Times, Professor Galeotti writes that Moscow and Kiev continue to claim progress on the path to peace, but ultimately both sides are trying to continue the war.
Despite all the overly optimistic talk from the White House about an imminent peace deal, with President Trump saying on Friday that he thought "everything would go well" with President Zelensky and President Putin, negotiations to end the war in Ukraine appear to be at a dynamic stalemate, says Mark Galeotti. However, there is reason to believe that the coming year will bring, if not a negotiated peace, then at least an attrition and slowdown in the fighting on the ground, the professor adds.
Mark Galeotti makes a few important points. The first is the so-called "ping-pong diplomacy". Neither Zelensky nor Putin want to appear as an obstacle to peace in Trump's eyes. When they are not posing for the White House, however, the tone on both sides is much less cordial.
Another question is whether Ukrainians remain optimistic. After all, writes Professor Galeotti, Ukraine faces problems mobilizing the money, human resources and optimism needed for this brutal fight. The European Union’s recent decision to raise a €90 billion loan to keep Kiev financed until 2027 seems to solve the financial problem, but effectively spending that money is not always so easy, especially converting it into the weapons Ukraine needs.
The Kremlin also has a serious problem. Russians are more supportive of peace talks than ever before, while the economy is slowing. Russia has also been recruiting more than 30,000 volunteers a month, compensating for losses suffered on the battlefield by offering life-changing sums of money, but there are already signs that the number of available volunteers is low.
Finally, Mark Galeotti points out, we see a tired West. For all the optimistic rhetoric, Europe is having trouble maintaining its consensus on financing the war. The political scientist concludes that as exhaustion sets in in 2026, both sides may be willing to accept compromises that are currently considered impossible.