The Ukrainian Armed Forces continued to carry out long-range strikes on Russian military and energy infrastructure sites on the night of January 5-6. According to information from the Ukrainian General Staff, distributed on January 6, the 100th arsenal of the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU), located near the city of Neya in the Kostroma region, was hit, News.bg reports.
This is reported by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Sources from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told Ukrainian media that the strike resulted in explosions of stored ammunition. The arsenal played a key role in supplying ammunition to warehouses in Russia's Central and Moscow Military Districts.
The governor of the Kostroma region, Sergei Sitnikov, reported on January 6 that falling debris from a drone had caused a fire at an unnamed military base in the Neysky district. In response, local authorities opened an evacuation point for residents of the southern part of the city of Neysky.
On the same day, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that Ukrainian forces had also struck the Gerkon Plus oil depot near the village of Streletsky Khutory in the Usmansky district of the Lipetsk region. As a result, a fire broke out. The depot supplies oil to the Tambov, Voronezh and Lipetsk regions. Lipetsk Region Governor Igor Artamonov confirmed that falling fragments from a drone caused a fire at an unnamed industrial facility in Usmansky District.
On the diplomatic front, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met in Paris on January 6 with leaders of the so-called “Coalition of the Willing“ countries to discuss possible security guarantees for Ukraine after the end of the war. In a joint statement, the coalition stressed that preserving Ukraine's sovereignty and long-term security would be a key element of any future peace agreement.
According to the statement, the parties are ready to make politically and legally binding commitments that would come into effect in the event of a ceasefire. The measures include a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism, continued military assistance and arming of Ukraine, the deployment of a multinational air, sea and land deterrent force, and specific commitments to support renewed Russian aggression. This includes the use of military capabilities, intelligence and logistical support, diplomatic action and the imposition of additional sanctions against Russia. It also plans to deepen long-term defense cooperation through joint training and production in the military industry.
At the same time, Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that such Western security guarantees, especially the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine, are “unacceptable” for Russia.
In parallel, a German military document reveals that Russia is using covert attacks on German infrastructure as part of preparations for a potential future conflict between Russia and NATO – an assessment that coincides with ISW's analyses. Western media reported in late December 2025 and early January 2026 that the document indicated an intensification of covert Russian actions against key German sites.
The document also examines Russian cyber operations and influence campaigns as part of preparations for a military confrontation. It notes that Germany expects to become an early target of attacks on its energy and defense infrastructure, given its role as NATO's logistical and operational hub. It predicts that in the event of an open armed conflict, Russia would identify Germany as a priority target for long-range missile strikes, drone attacks, and special forces operations.
The assessment in the document is that Russia could develop the necessary capabilities and “strategic options“ by 2029 at the latest, even if the war against Ukraine continues without significant change. However, ISW emphasizes that Russia could probably become a serious threat to NATO earlier than many Western forecasts, especially in the event of a possible ceasefire in Ukraine, which would allow Moscow to free up forces, rearm and restore its combat potential.
According to the analysis, the covert Russian operations against German infrastructure are part of the so-called "Phase Zero" campaign - a stage aimed at creating favorable information and psychological conditions in preparation for a possible future military clash between Russia and NATO.