The price of gold will reach $4,800 per troy ounce by the fourth quarter of this year, surpassing last year's records. This is according to forecasts by the American bank “Morgan Stanley“, quoted by Reuters. The financial institution cites falling interest rates, a change in the leadership of the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB), as well as purchases of the precious metal by central banks and investment funds as reasons for this, BTA reported.
In its note, the bank notes that the latest events in Venezuela over the weekend are likely to attract buyers to gold as a "safe haven", but specifies that this is not specifically stated as a reason for the forecast of $4,800 per ounce.
The price of gold reached a record high of $4,549.71 per troy ounce on December 26 and ended 2025 up 64 percent, its strongest annual performance since 1979.
Safe haven in times of turmoil
Traders view gold as a safe store of value during economic and geopolitical turmoil, and it also performs well in low-interest rate environments, when the lack of yield (interest) is less of a financial disadvantage.
For silver, the bank said 2025 marked a peak in the shortage, adding that China's export licensing requirements, which came into effect at the beginning of this year, increased the “risk of silver appreciation“.
Silver posted its strongest annual growth in 2025, with its price rising by 147 percent, supported by growing industrial and investment demand and structural market deficit.
The bank also forecasts that aluminum and copper have better market prospects and a greater chance of appreciation compared to other base metals.
“Aluminum supply is limited everywhere except Indonesia, and demand for the metal is growing in the US Midwest, suggesting that domestic aluminum demand may be recovering“, the bank wrote in its note.
The financial institution added that US copper imports have increased, which maintains tension in other markets, and that the high level of disruptions in the metal's supply in 2025 continues into 2026.
Copper with delivery in three months on the London Metal Exchange (LME) peaked at $13,387.50 yesterday.
The bank also highlighted the strength of the nickel market, driven by the risk of supply disruptions in Indonesia, although it noted that much of that risk is likely already priced in.
The price of nickel rose 5.8 percent to $17,980 a tonne yesterday, hitting its highest level since October 8, 2024.