The Russian offensive slowed in late December 2025 and early January 2026, likely due to less favorable winter weather conditions and the end of efforts to meet arbitrary deadlines at the end of the year.
This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
ISW sees evidence that Russian forces increased their presence (through infiltration missions or attacks) to 276.44 square kilometers of Ukraine between December 1 and 17; 89.05 square kilometers between December 17 and 31; and 73.82 square kilometers between December 31 and January 13. The 7-day moving average of Russian gains at the end of 2025 peaked on December 1 and 2 and then steadily declined until the end of the year. Russian forces were able to take advantage of poor weather conditions in the fall and early winter of 2025, which prevented Ukrainian drone operations from making relatively faster progress.
However, ISW has previously noted that these favorable weather conditions have not been constant.
Russian forces are likely struggling to maintain this faster pace of advance as cooler temperatures have set in, complicating the ability of Russian forces to successfully implement their new offensive model, which relies heavily on infantry penetration missions that must traverse dozens of kilometers of territory on foot with limited supplies.
Russian forces may also have initially increased the pace of their offensive operations in December 2025 to meet the Russian military command’s requirements to achieve certain objectives by the end of the year.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has indicated that Russia’s goals in Ukraine go beyond the territory currently under discussion in the latest peace plans, and includes all of Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. The future peace agreement will have to resolve the "question of the fate of the people living in Crimea, Novorossiya and Donbas". Novorossiya is a fictional region that Kremlin officials often claim is "an integral part" of Russia.
Novorossiya includes not only Crimea and the four regions that Russia has illegally annexed, but also Kharkiv, Dnepropetrovsk, Mykolaiv and Odessa regions. Kremlin officials have repeatedly called Odessa a "Russian" city and have publicly discussed "Novorossiya" as part of the Russian Federation.
The US-proposed 28-point peace plan allows for Russian occupation only of Crimea, the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and the currently occupied parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, requiring Russia to cede occupied territories outside these five regions, including in Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Lavrov's mention of Novorossiya on January 14 is not a new demand, but is further evidence that Russia's demands are greater than those included in the original 28-point plan. Lavrov's statement was likely an attempt to set conditions ahead of a possible upcoming meeting between US special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, a former senior adviser to US President Jared Kushner, and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia.
The Kremlin has continued to insist that the United States, Ukraine and Europe accept Russian demands, rejecting recent US-led peace efforts to find compromises to end the war. On January 14, Lavrov said that Russia was ready to negotiate with Europe, but rejected discussions of a permanent or 60-day ceasefire.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a temporary ceasefire to allow Ukraine to hold elections as a step towards ending Russia's war.
The Kremlin has repeatedly called for elections in Ukraine, but Lavrov's statement is a rejection of the very measures Ukraine needs to implement those demands.
Lavrov also argued that a ceasefire would give the West more time to support Ukraine, covering up the fact that the Kremlin has been delaying the peace process for months in order to prolong the war and achieve Russia's original military goals through military means.
Russia condemns US threats to strike and intervene in Iran
Those who want to repeat aggression against Iran should be aware with consequences, the Russian Foreign Ministry said
Lavrov highlighted Russia's partnerships with Venezuela and Iran on January 14, while criticizing the Trump administration's recent actions in Venezuela. On January 14, Lavrov said that Russia remains committed to maintaining strategic relations and agreements with Venezuela and condemned recent U.S. military operations in Venezuela.
Lavrov also responded to potential U.S. tariffs on countries doing business with Iran, saying that no third party could change the "fundamental nature of relations" between Russia and Iran. Lavrov argued that the United States had abandoned its principles, showing that the United States was "unreliable" and that its "competitive position" was "constantly deteriorating." Russia relies heavily on Iran for arms and technology supplies, especially to power Russia's long-range drone strikes against Ukraine during the full-scale invasion.
Russia signed strategic partnership agreements with Iran and Venezuela in January and May 2025, respectively.
On January 14, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine approved several personnel changes in the Ukrainian government. On January 14, the Verkhovna Rada approved former Minister of Digital Transformation Mykhailo Fyodorov as the new Minister of Defense.
The Verkhovna Rada also approved former Ukrainian Minister of Defense Denys Shmygal as the new Minister of Energy and First Deputy Prime Minister.
On January 14, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Fyodorov would prioritize finding systemic solutions to the problems of mobilization and recruitment in Ukraine, increasing Ukraine's air defense, and auditing defense financing.
Zelensky said that Fyodorov would also focus on increasing the supply of drones to Ukrainian forces, including by purchasing specialized drones to strike Russian forces at greater depth from the front.
Polish officials reported that Russia carried out cyberattacks on the Polish energy grid in late December 2025. The Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of digital affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski reported on January 13 that Russia had launched a cyberattack against Poland's energy infrastructure in late December 2025 that risked causing a power outage in Poland.
Polish Energy Minister Milosz Motyka said the attack was the largest cyberattack on Poland's energy infrastructure in recent years and targeted a thermal power plant and several renewable energy sources across Poland.
The Russian cyberattack is likely part of the Kremlin's "Phase Zero" campaign aimed at creating the political, informational and psychological conditions for a potential future war against NATO.