Few foreign policy issues have been studied as thoroughly in the past 20 years as the potential consequences of a U.S. strike on Iran, writes The Atlantic.
Thanks to years of analysis and preparation for a potential attack on Iran, the early days of the war were, in large part, a brilliant display of American power.
But those same studies also clearly pointed out the risks: soaring oil prices, spreading violence in the Middle East, and the loss of civilian life – as was evident in the U.S. missile strike near an Iranian elementary school. When past presidents backed off the prospect of war with Iran, they weren’t just avoiding difficult choices – they were stopped by a clear understanding of how easily this conflict could spiral out of control. And no one should be surprised that this expectation is now coming true.
By proclaiming unattainable goals – unconditional surrender and regime change – as the goals of his war, Trump has allowed his adversary to disguise survival as victory. And has deprived himself of any obvious stop on what he recently called a “short excursion.”