Trump has repeatedly stated that the Venezuelan scenario would be “ideal“ for Iran, writes Neue Zurcher Zeitung (Switzerland). But the Venezuelan model is based on one key premise.
It requires a successor who must have the institutional authority and domestic legitimacy to bear the political costs of a deal with Washington. More than ten days after the start of Operation “Epic Fury“, this premise is falling apart.
Iran does not need to win the war militarily. It only needs to survive long enough for the political and economic costs of regional instability to accrue. The results are already visible. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, has fallen by 90% in the past week.
Dubai International Airport, the world’s busiest, is virtually closed. Jet fuel prices in Europe have risen 72%, approaching their 2022 peak. Qatar has halted production of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Each additional week of instability increases the pressure on U.S. allies and the Republican Party, which is facing rising fuel prices ahead of midterm elections.
Meanwhile, Iran’s domestic political establishment is increasingly unable to find a negotiating partner. When President Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring Gulf states for military attacks, hardliners quickly shut him down, and Trump went on to celebrate Iran’s “humiliating surrender” on Truth Social. In doing so, he deprived the man closest to pragmatism in Tehran of domestic political support.