Tehran threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait

On March 19, Iran struck the Yanbu oil refinery, Saudi Arabia's main port on the Red Sea. The price of Brent crude oil immediately rose above $119 a barrel. The Red Sea serves as a bypass route amid the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, on March 15, Yemeni Houthis, allies of Tehran, announced their readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Invest Future reports.

“Increasing insecurity in other straits, starting with Bab el-Mandeb, is one of our options”, an Iranian military source told Iran's Tasnim news agency on March 21.

Iran intends to expand the scope of its regional repression in case the United States or Israel launch a ground offensive, according to the Tasnim news agency. This military option, despite Donald Trump's calls for peace talks, still appears to be on the table. Washington continues to increase its military presence in the Middle East.

The United States is considering sending an additional 10,000 troops, the Wall Street Journal reported on March 26. These troops will be in addition to the 2,000 paratroopers - an elite force - that the United States decided to deploy earlier this week. This is in addition to the 2,500 Marines aboard the USS Tripoli, who have been en route to the Middle East for the past 10 days.

Why is the Bab el-Mandeb important?

The Bab el-Mandeb is a narrow strait, approximately 26 kilometers wide, between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. It is the entrance to the Suez Canal and the only sea outlet from the Red Sea. Before the current escalation, an estimated 6–8.8 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through it per day - approximately 9–12 percent of the world's seaborne oil trade. According to the EIA, approximately 4.9 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day have been flowing through the Suez Canal and the Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline (SUMED) simultaneously.

Now, the Bab el-Mandeb has become critically important as a backup corridor for oil that bypasses Hormuz. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia is increasing pumping through the East-West pipeline to Yanbu to a record 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE has increased the Habshan-Fujairah bypass pipeline to near its maximum capacity of approximately 1.8 million barrels per day. In theory, this translates into a bypass capacity of approximately 7–8 million barrels per day.