Author: Konstantin Eggert
The American president is offended by the European allies for not supporting the US and Israel in the war against Iran. The owner of the White House called NATO a “book tiger“ and expressed bewilderment why this organization is needed, if it only deals with Europe? There is also something else: Trump planned to overthrow the ayatollahs' regime in a few days and put the allies before the fait accompli of war. Now he is offended by them because the fighting and political strategy were clearly poorly planned and prepared. That is why the war dragged on.
Trump and Rubio compile "ranking" of NATO countries?
Trump's statements could be explained by irritation with the protracted hostilities against the regime in Tehran and the decision of Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to deny the Americans the use of his country's territory for operations against Iran. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio also stated that relations with NATO would be reviewed. Thus, the feeling arises that this is not just intimidation of the allies, but a real attempt, if not to leave the Alliance, then at least to change relations within it.
Leaving NATO will not be easy. The North Atlantic Treaty was ratified by the US Congress and is kept in its archives. Even if Trump were to sign such an order, the scandal, and probably the political crisis, would be gigantic, including in his own Republican Party. And the decision will most likely be challenged in the US Supreme Court.
But even without leaving NATO, the US administration has many semi-formal and informal opportunities to put pressure on its allies. These include arms deliveries, intelligence sharing, and logistical support. Without US military transport aviation, any NATO operation will be much more complicated. And even if there is no rupture with the Alliance, Washington will create a kind of ranking of NATO countries depending on their loyalty to the White House and the size of their military budgets. Those who agree and "pay" will be spoken to in one way, and others like Sanchez in another.
How Europe could defend itself: three conditions
The moment of truth has come for Europeans. Regardless of whether America leaves the Alliance or not, a serious blow has already been dealt to the political unity of the organization. The question of whether NATO can survive without the United States is no longer purely theoretical and must be answered in due time. My answer is - "yes, it can". In addition, the Alliance remains transatlantic - Canada does not intend to leave it. It will also remain nuclear - although the arsenals of Great Britain and France are not comparable to the American one. But - in order to ensure the defense of European democracies, especially from a possible attack by Russia, several conditions will have to be met.
First: the political leaders of the European NATO countries must show will and convince their voters that strengthening defense capabilities will require sacrifices. Social programs will have to be cut, and in parallel - part of the state apparatus. In addition, a number of countries will have to restore compulsory military service. These measures will be unpopular, respectively, the voices of the right and left supporters of “peace with Russia at any cost“ will sound much louder. They will be reinforced by Russian propaganda and agents.
The second condition is financial. It is not so insurmountable, given that the GDP of the European NATO member states is approaching 20 trillion euros, and Russia's is ten times smaller. Europeans will have money - especially if the first condition is met. These funds will have to be quickly invested in technologies and production, which are currently lacking in Europe: drones, heavy transport aviation, air defense equipment, means for waging cyberwar. The EU is already taking important steps in this direction. On March 30, the EC approved a work program with a budget of 1.5 billion euros under the EDIP defense program, which provides for the modernization of the European defense industry, an increase in production capacity and the integration of the Ukrainian defense industry into it.
There are already good examples at the level of individual countries. In less than ten years, Poland has created the largest and most technically well-equipped army among the EU countries. And Finland has not only far-sightedly preserved compulsory military service, but also possesses the most powerful artillery in NATO, if you don’t count the American one.
Putin may decide to test European defense
The third condition is the most difficult. If the Americans leave, Putin can easily want to test the resilience of European defense - not through a full-scale invasion, but, for example, by conquering a small territory of one of the Baltic countries in a few hours. Moscow has long wanted to prove that "real", i.e. Western Europeans will not go to die for some attacked Estonian city, and without the support of the United States.
Moreover, he can try to do this without America's formal withdrawal from NATO. Simply because with its statements Washington provokes Putin to "try his luck". I am sure that in such a case the Baltic countries, Poland and the Nordic countries will be obliged to respond firmly and not pay attention to what the Americans think or say. If this lesson is learned well, NATO will survive without the Americans.