"In principle, the Americans, as one of the major military powers on the planet, have the ability and the firepower to carry it out. In this sense, the threat is completely real" - this is how German political scientist Prof. Stefan Birling commented on Donald Trump's latest threats that he will destroy everything in Iran if the country does not give in. In an interview with the German public media ARD, he added that we are currently in a very political phase of the war, and Trump is becoming increasingly desperate. "He is becoming increasingly nervous. He sets ultimatums that he then postpones. This shows that the Americans are currently desperately looking for some way to force Iran to back down. "They went into this conflict blindly, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and the US can't do anything about it? Yes, believes Prof. Birling. "The Americans, Trump and his people, went into this conflict blindly. They probably thought it would be resolved within a few days or even hours, with a big, triumphant victory for the president. But now we see that once the first shot is fired, things become politically unpredictable," the political scientist told ARD. According to him, no one expected Iran to be able to defend itself for so long. "The regime will not surrender. The Strait of Hormuz has been discussed for decades as a nerve center. But Trump and his advisers were clearly not aware of this. The same applies to the attacks on Arab countries. And now the whole situation threatens to escalate. In fact, it has already escalated significantly, and the Americans are gradually running out of useful moves, "commented Professor Birling.
"This is suicidal"
According to him, first of all, the Strait of Hormuz, as a key place for the world's oil supply, cannot be permanently defended militarily without ground troops. However, this entails enormous risks.
"We do not actually know what the real goals of the Americans are in this war. Trump leaves us in the dark. So far, he has given almost a dozen different explanations for what the Americans want to achieve. And he has always ruled out the possibility of using ground troops. This also fits into his argument, with which he attacked Obama, and also Bush Jr.: that he does not want to drag America into endless wars. And now he is suddenly faced with the decision - and he himself put himself in this situation - whether to use ground troops after all", says Professor Birling and adds: "But trying to force Iran to retreat with ground troops is suicidal. The Revolutionary Guard is armed to the teeth and has several hundred thousand people, and together with the militias they may even number in the millions. From a military-strategic point of view, this cannot succeed - or at least it is associated with enormous risks", points out Professor Birling.
"Trump cannot impress the Iranians"
According to the German political scientist, it is currently a question of who is willing to endure more suffering. "For the Iranian regime, it is a question of its own survival. And we know that such - essentially terrorist regimes - are ready to do anything to preserve their power. Because the loss of power could mean not only the end of their rule, but is also associated with the danger of being executed for them. The Revolutionary Guard - these were the mass murderers who, after the revolution in 1979, killed all those loyal to the Shah. This means that they know very well what can happen to them. And from this it follows that their willingness to endure suffering and hold the Iranian people hostage in this war is practically unlimited. The US willingness to suffer, especially Trump's, seems much less pronounced," the expert says, concluding:
"Trump's vulgar outbursts on Truth Social show how he is trying more and more brutally and more desperately to get out of this conflict. And that's why he is threatening with everything he has. Although he cannot impress the Iranians with this."
Author: Mikhail Pavelets (ARD)