The current contraction in natural gas demand, caused by the war with Iran, could become a structural trend if the conflict drags on, warned the secretary-general of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum, Philip Mshelbila.
According to him, governments in the affected regions are already taking emergency measures such as switching to coal and accelerating investment in renewable energy, which is currently a temporary response, but could lead to permanent changes in the market, reports "Reuters".
Since the beginning of the conflict in late February, more than 500 million barrels of oil and condensate have been removed from the global market, which, according to analysts, is the largest energy outage in modern history. Mshelbila said that if the war ends quickly, the market could recover within 6 to 12 months, but if the conflict continues, the current emergency measures risk becoming a long-term policy.
The statement was made during an energy conference in Paris, where it was emphasized that the crisis had disrupted expectations for 2026, which was supposed to be a year of transition from shortage to oversupply of gas. According to Mshelbila, it is no longer clear whether this scenario will ever come true.
At the same time, African gas producers are missing an opportunity to fill the gap, despite the available capacity. He said that export pipelines to Europe from countries such as Algeria and Libya are not being fully used, allowing North American producers to take a larger share of markets in Europe and Asia.