The US-Iran war has caused a “deep rift“ between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Axios reports.
According to sources in the US and the region, the Trump administration has been slow to recognize the seriousness of the rift between the countries and has decided not to intervene.
At the beginning of the conflict, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Riyadh and Abu Dhabi that the US would not take sides. Unnamed senior officials are concerned that the US's two most important Arab allies will be more hostile than ever after the war ends. The UAE-Saudi rift stems from personal animosity between the two leaders and opposing stakes in the Iran war. The UAE, which initially opposed the conflict, is now pushing for an end to it, while Saudi Arabia, which initially supported the conflict, has realized the scale of the damage to its economy and is pushing for a swift end. An Axios article states that Gulf leaders have been honing the "Dubai model" for years, relying on economic stability, but Iran's attacks on hotels and airports have "completely destroyed that foundation." The publication notes that the "grand tour" Trump's victory last year could symbolize a new era in which the development of artificial intelligence, global investment and geopolitics are inextricably linked to the Gulf states.
However, as Constellation CEO Joe Dominguez noted in an interview with Axios, after Iran demonstrated its ability to strike targets with cheap drones, no one is rushing to build $20 billion data centers in Saudi Arabia or the UAE.
The UAE is currently banking on the “Abraham“ agreements and its partnership with Israel, which has provided them with missile defense systems for the first time since the conflict began.
Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is increasingly moving closer to Turkey and Pakistan. Economic tensions have also contributed to political tensions between the two countries.
On May 1, the UAE left OPEC to produce oil on its own terms without discussing the issue with Gulf states, angering Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. According to an Axios source familiar with the discussions at the Jeddah summit, the Saudis were “shocked and angry.”
Despite the conflicts, the countries still hold significant energy and capital reserves and maintain security ties with Washington, which the Iran war has only strengthened. In March, Bloomberg reported that Turkish diplomats were actively consulting with Arab states affected by Iranian strikes.
Ambassadors are urging them to refrain from direct military involvement in the Middle East conflict.