Russian President Vladimir Putin's insistence on holding the Victory Day parade on May 9 is a sign that the Kremlin refuses to accept the reality that the war is already returning to Russian territory through increasingly intense Ukrainian strikes. This is stated in an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports News.bg.
According to analysts, Russian society is increasingly feeling the weight of the more than four-year-long war - both through the growing number of victims and through financial costs, increased censorship and restrictions on mobile communications. Ukrainian long-range strikes continue to affect more and more areas deep in Russia. On May 5, the Russian aviation agency Rosaviatsia simultaneously closed airports in 15 Russian cities and imposed restrictions on four Moscow airports. On the same day, the governor of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug Ruslan Kuharuk declared an air alert - the first in the region since the beginning of the war. The district is located over 2,000 kilometers from the border with Ukraine, which highlights the depth of anxiety in the Russian rear.
ISW notes that although there is no confirmed data on a Ukrainian attempt to strike there, the very fact of such concerns shows how deeply the sense of security has been shaken.
The analysis also indicates that Russian ultranationalist military bloggers - part of Putin's traditional patriotic base - are increasingly criticizing the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry.
One of them accuses the ministry of putting "vanity" first around the parade, instead of focusing on protecting critical military, industrial and oil infrastructure from Ukrainian attacks.
According to another commentator, the decision not to have heavy military equipment in the parade this year was dictated by concerns that the storage areas for the machines are easy targets for Ukrainian attacks.
ISW emphasizes that the Ukrainian campaign exploits the vast area of the Russian rear and the wide location of infrastructure facilities, which presents the Kremlin with increasingly difficult decisions on how to distribute limited air defense systems.
According to analysts, Russia has largely failed to build a reliable defense against these attacks, and this has further increased public tension and discontent in the information space.
According to ISW, Moscow's threats of retaliatory action against possible Ukrainian attacks during the May 9 parade actually show an admission that the Kremlin cannot guarantee the security of even the capital.
The report also notes that ongoing Ukrainian strikes are damaging a wide range of Russian cities and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue their combined drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian areas.
At least seven civilians were killed and at least 35 injured in the attacks on May 4 and 5 alone. In Poltava region, Russian forces launched a double missile attack on rescue teams, killing two people and wounding more than 20.
The ISW concludes that despite the relatively limited number of missiles and drones used, Russia is refining its tactics to inflict maximum damage with a disproportionately heavy impact on the civilian population.
On the front line, Ukrainian forces have made progress in Sumy region and in the direction of Pokrovsk, while Russian units have also reported limited movement in Sumy region.