The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has announced the terms of Russia's unilaterally declared ceasefire for Victory Day on May 9 from midnight local time on May 8 to midnight on May 10.
This is according to the "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW).
The Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian forces would completely cease hostilities and called on Ukraine to follow suit. He also repeated his warning that Russian forces would launch a "massive missile strike on Kiev if Ukraine does not respect the ceasefire."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 7 that Russia had responded to the unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine from May 5 to 6 with additional strikes and new threats."
Russia is likely to use its unilaterally imposed ceasefire to justify threats of or actual escalation against Ukraine."
Russia has been making increasingly dramatic threats of escalation against Ukraine on the eve of the unilaterally declared ceasefire for Victory Day. Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on May 7 that Russia would take "appropriate steps" if Ukraine carried out strikes against Russia to "violate" Victory Day celebrations on May 9, including strikes on decision-making centers in Kiev.
Zakharova and the Russian Defense Ministry reiterated the Russian Defense Ministry's call of May 4 for Ukrainian civilians and personnel of foreign diplomatic missions to leave Kiev immediately.
Zakharova claimed that the Russian MVN had sent this warning to all foreign diplomatic missions and representations of international organizations due to the possibility of a Russian retaliatory strike on the city.
European Commission spokesman for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Anwar El-Announi said on May 7 that the EU would not change its presence in Kiev and noted that Russian strikes had already damaged several diplomatic missions in Kiev, including the EU mission to Ukraine.
El-Announi said that Russia was once again trying to shift the blame for its war onto Ukraine and that Russia was only escalating its war rather than showing serious intent to peace.
The Kremlin is likely trying to prove that it can depopulate Kiev and control the decision-making of Ukraine's partners with threats to escalate the war, even as Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely seeking to cover up the weakness that Ukraine's deep-rear strikes against Russia have exposed. ISW continues to assess that Russia's threat to retaliate against Ukraine for allegedly planning strikes against Moscow for the Victory Day celebrations reflects Putin's recognition that it cannot reliably protect its capital or other areas deep in the rear from Ukrainian strikes.
The Kremlin's escalating threats leading up to Victory Day on May 9 are likely aimed at covering up this weakness by threatening or demonstrating a show of force against Ukraine and its allies, including through the use of "Oreshnik" by Duma deputies.
The Kremlin has periodically fired or otherwise used the threat of its Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missiles to unsuccessfully force Ukraine to surrender at key points in the war, and has also used the deployment of Oreshniks in Belarus to threaten Europe.
Russia has made unsuccessful attempts to force Ukrainians to leave Kiev through cognitive warfare, portraying Russian forces as capable of a rapid advance on Kiev, and through intensive drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities in the winter of 2025-2026.
Russian bloggers have criticized Russian threats to strike the center of Kiev and questioned the Kremlin's readiness to carry out such a strike.
The Kremlin continues to set information conditions to justify possible future air defense activity against NATO airspace. The Latvian National Armed Forces reported on May 7 that several drones had entered Latvian airspace from Russia and two drones had crashed on Latvian territory.
Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said on May 7 that preliminary information suggested that these drones were Ukrainian drones aimed at targets in Russia, but stressed that Ukraine had the full right to defend itself and strike legitimate targets on Russian territory.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) said on May 7 that Russian forces had detected six drones, two French Rafale fighter jets and two F-16 fighter jets in Latvian airspace at 04:00 local time on May 7, that five drones had disappeared near Rēzekne in eastern Latvia, and that Russian forces had shot down a sixth drone in Russian airspace near Likhachevo, Pskov Region, at 04:41 local time.
Internal documents from the Russian presidential administration show that Russia is still unwilling to make a meaningful compromise on the final outcome of the war in Ukraine. The Russian investigative center "Dossier" published on May 7 slides from a presentation titled "After the Victory" that staff of the Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko created to outline the "most plausible scenario" for the end of the war in Ukraine and ways to "sell" a peace agreement to the Russian population.
The "Dossier" Center reported that Kremlin officials began work on the presentation as early as February 2026. A source close to the presidential administration told the "Dossier" Center that the presidential administration created the presentation due to the Kremlin's concerns about Russia's poor performance on the battlefield and the effect of the war on the Russian economy.
According to reports, the "most plausible scenario" the presentation envisions the United States signing two separate peace agreements with Russia and Ukraine, in which Russia would gain control of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, withdraw from Sumy and Kharkiv regions, and freeze the front line in Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.