Europe could face a critical shortage of gas reserves if disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue for another 1-3 months. This is stated in a report by analysts from the Norwegian energy company Equinor, Reuters reports, quoted by Focus.
Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicate that gas storage facilities across Europe are currently filled by just over 35%, which is below the seasonal norm of about 50%.
It is noted that member states must create a gas buffer during the summer in the northern hemisphere to achieve the EU's storage target of 90% in the period from October to early December.
"If the war ends tomorrow and traffic through the strait quickly recovers, we will be able to reach an acceptable, albeit limited, level of reserves of 75%, but if the blockade lasts for one to three months, the situation could become critical“, said the senior vice president of the company Equinor.
The report models a scenario in which Europe will have to look for alternative sources of supply in conditions of fierce competition with Asia for the limited volumes of liquefied natural gas on the world market. This will inevitably lead to a sharp jump in prices and the need to force a reduction in gas consumption by industry.
At the same time, analysts note that currently underground gas storage facilities in Europe are largely full thanks to mild winters, which gives the region some reserve of resilience in the event of short-term geopolitical shocks.