US President Donald Trump may have won almost every battle against Iran, but three months after the attack on the Islamic Republic, he faces a bigger question: is he losing the war?
With Iran retaining control of the Strait of Hormuz, refusing nuclear concessions and its theocratic rule largely intact, doubts are growing whether Trump can translate the US military's tactical successes into a result he can convincingly present as a geopolitical victory, BTA writes.
His repeated claims of total victory ring hollow, some analysts say, as the two sides vacillate between shaky diplomacy and Trump's periodic threats to "resume strikes," which would surely lead to Iranian retaliation across the region.
Now Trump risks leaving the United States and its Gulf Arab allies in a worse position, while Iran, though badly hit militarily and economically, could find itself with greater leverage after demonstrating its ability to block a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supplies. The crisis is not over yet, and some experts do not rule out the possibility that Trump could still find a way out that would preserve his political image if the negotiations go in his favor. Others, however, foresee a bleak post-war outlook for Trump. "Three months later, it seems that a war that was intended as a short-term, easy victory for Trump is turning into a long-term strategic failure," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator in both Republican and Democratic U.S. administrations. This is particularly important for Trump, given his well-known sensitivity to being perceived as loser - an insult that he himself often directs at his opponents. In the Iran crisis, he finds himself commander-in-chief of the world's most powerful military against a minor power that clearly believes it has the initiative.
Analysts say the situation could make Trump, who has yet to define a clear end goal, less inclined to compromise that would appear to be a retreat from his maximalist positions or a repeat of the Obama-era 2015 nuclear deal that he abandoned during his first term.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wells said the United States had "achieved or exceeded all military objectives in Operation Epic Fury."
"President Trump holds all the cards and wisely leaves all options on the table," she added.
Trump campaigned for a second term on a promise to avoid unnecessary military intervention, but instead has drawn the United States into a conflict that could permanently damage its foreign policy reputation and international authority.
The ongoing standoff comes amid domestic pressure over high U.S. fuel prices and Trump's low approval ratings following the start of the unpopular war in Iran. Ahead of the November midterm elections, in which the Republican Party is expected to struggle to retain control of Congress, some analysts say that more than six weeks after the Iran ceasefire, Trump faces a difficult choice: accept a possible imperfect deal as a way out of the crisis or escalate the war and risk an even longer conflict. Among his options if diplomacy fails, analysts say, is for Trump to strike new limited but hard blows, present them as a final victory, and move on. Another option is for Trump to try to shift attention to Cuba, as he has suggested, in the hope of changing the subject and achieving an easier victory. If he does so, he may underestimate the challenges posed by Havana, much as some of his advisers admit that he mistakenly thought the operation against Iran would resemble the operation on January 3, which led to the capture of the Venezuelan president and his replacement.
However, there are analysts who defend Trump's strategy.
Alexander Gray, a former senior adviser in the first Trump administration and current CEO of the consulting firm “American Global Strategies“, rejected the idea that the campaign against Iran was a failure.
According to him, the severe blow to Iranian military capabilities is in itself a “strategic success“, the war has brought the Gulf states closer to the United States and distanced them from China, and the fate of Iran's nuclear program is still undecided.
Yet there are signs of Trump’s growing frustration with his inability to control the public narrative. He has attacked his critics and accused the media of “betrayal.”
The conflict has dragged on for twice as long as the six-week maximum that Trump outlined when he joined Israel in starting the war on February 28. While his MAGA base continues to support him, cracks are already appearing in the near-unanimous support among Republican lawmakers.
Initial waves of airstrikes quickly weakened Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, destroyed much of the Iranian navy, and killed a number of senior leaders.
But Tehran has responded by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring, and by attacking Israel and neighboring Gulf states. Trump then ordered a blockade of Iranian ports, but that too failed to force Tehran to comply.
Iranian leaders have countered Trump’s triumphant claims with their own propaganda, portraying his campaign as a “crushing defeat,” even though it is clear that Iranian officials are also exaggerating their military capabilities.
Trump has said his goals in the war are to block Iran’s path to nuclear weapons, end its ability to threaten the region and American interests, and facilitate the overthrow of the regime by the Iranians themselves.
There is no sign that these often-shifted goals have been achieved, and many analysts say they are unlikely to.
Jonathan Panikow, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East, says that while Iran has suffered heavy blows, its leaders see the fact that it has that they survived the US attack and realized how much control they could exert over shipping in the Gulf.
“They found they could use that pressure with little consequence to themselves,“ says Panikow, who now works at the Atlantic Council, a think tank. He adds that Iran seems confident it can take more economic hits than Trump and outlast him politically.
Trump's main stated goal - denuclearization of Iran - also remains elusive, and Tehran has shown little willingness to significantly curtail its program.
Stocks of highly enriched Iranian uranium are believed to remain buried after US and Israeli air strikes last June and could be recovered and further processed to the level needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran is demanding that the United States recognize its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, as it claims.
Adding a further complication, Iran's supreme leader has ordered that uranium enriched to near-weapons levels not be exported abroad, two senior Iranian officials told Reuters.
Some analysts believe that war could make Iran more inclined, not less inclined, to accelerate its efforts to develop nuclear weapons to protect itself, similar to nuclear-armed North Korea.