Ukraine must be prepared for a prolonged conflict with Russia, which could last several more years. In addition to defeating Russia, Ukraine must fight corruption and build democracy, writes The Economist, citing government sources, Focus reports.
The overall picture of the war for Ukraine has changed. The front line has largely stabilized, support from Europe continues, and the country is rapidly developing its own defense sector, in particular the production of drones. At the same time, the political leadership increasingly sees a prolonged war as inevitable.
Ukraine has reached a critical stage: it has retained its sovereignty, but resilience alone does not yet mean victory. The country faces questions about resource depletion, human potential, and the long-term sustainability of society.
The Ukrainian military reports a gradual increase in the effectiveness of its defense, largely due to the use of unmanned systems. According to their estimates, the losses of Russian troops remain high, and the pace of personnel recovery is insufficient to compensate.
Russia, despite constant pressure from the front, is not achieving its stated goals in the Donbass within the planned timeframe. The Ukrainian command claims that the advantage is manifested not only in technology, but also in the speed of adaptation and motivation of the units.
An important factor was the long-range strikes on the supply infrastructure and military facilities on Russian territory. Ukraine produces a significant part of these systems independently, gradually reducing its dependence on external supplies, although intelligence from partners remains critical.
Evgeny Karas, commander of the 413th Regiment, says that hitting targets deep inside Russia is now "three times easier" than it used to be. His unit has conducted several important operations, including strikes in March against Silicon El, a manufacturer of microchips for Russian ballistic missiles. The military commented:
"The war is not paradise for Ukraine, but for Russia things are going much worse and will become even more difficult".
He predicts a crisis in Russian air defense by the fall. By then, Ukraine’s ballistics production should be in full swing, causing fear and unrest deep in the heart of Russia.
Despite military successes, the internal consequences of the war are becoming increasingly tangible. Ukraine’s infrastructure is under regular attack, and the energy system remains vulnerable. Massive drone and missile attacks continue to hit major cities, including Kiev.
The economy is keeping afloat thanks to international aid and the development of the defense sector, but the loss of labor is significant. The overall decline in the working-age population is significantly affecting the pace of recovery.
The energy situation remains the most critical. Representatives of the civilian sector and government advisers emphasize that it is energy stability, and not just the situation on the front, that will determine the country’s resilience in the coming years.