Russia is approaching the limits of its capabilities to recruit volunteers for the front, which is making the Kremlin increasingly consider a new wave of forced mobilization, Kyiv Independent reports, citing Western analysts.
As the publication recalls, the first wave of the so-called partial mobilization in September 2022 was announced after the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. At that time, the Kremlin mobilized approximately 300,000 reservists, which caused protests and a mass flight of Russians abroad. Since then, the authorities have been trying to avoid another large-scale military draft, relying on voluntary contract soldiers and the recruitment of prisoners.
However, this model is now starting to fail. According to Ukrainian intelligence, approximately 70,500 new servicemen signed contracts in the first quarter of 2026, which is significantly below the plans of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, cited similar estimates, calling this figure the lowest in the last three years.
The problem is exacerbated by the huge losses suffered by the Russian army. According to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), by the end of 2025, Russia's losses may have reached 1.2 million, including approximately 325,000 deaths. To make up for these losses, Moscow needs to recruit more than 30,000 new soldiers per month.
Analysts note that the Kremlin is already increasing covert pressure on the population. This includes recruiting students, setting up recruitment plans for businesses, and issuing conscriptions to reservists under the guise of medical or administrative checks.
According to Ekaterina Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, the situation for Russia is becoming increasingly difficult.
“Russian losses began to exceed the rate of recruitment in the Russian army in late 2025, which means that the Kremlin will have to recruit more personnel just to maintain ground attacks at the level that Russia maintained in 2025,“ she notes.
At the same time, experts doubt that a new mobilization will be announced soon. The authors of the publication point out that Russian society is now more exhausted by the war, and the economic consequences of the conflict have become more tangible for the population.
Mikhail Komin, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes that the public reaction could be significantly sharper than four years ago.
According to experts, Putin could resort to new conscription only in two scenarios: a serious crisis at the front or if he decides to drastically escalate the conflict.
“If Russia really announces military mobilization, this will be a sign that the regime is under enormous pressure and has fallen into a political trap“, notes CSIS analyst Max Bergman.