Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine under the slogan of restoring Russia's imperial greatness, may ultimately go down in history as the politician who turned Russia into an economic vassal of China.
This opinion was expressed in a column for The Hill by David Kirichenko, a research fellow at the British think tank Henry Jackson Society.
The author argues that the war against Ukraine is not only depleting Russia's economy and military potential, but also strengthening Beijing's influence over Moscow. According to him, the Kremlin is trying to project an image of an equal alliance between Russia and China, but the reality is quite different.
Kirichenko notes that the longer the war continues, the more dependent Russia becomes on China economically, technologically and strategically. He emphasizes that Beijing is gradually increasing its support for the Russian military machine, while at the same time gaining greater influence over its partner.
The article states that today Russia relies heavily on China for electronics, industrial equipment, cars and dual-use technologies. Western sanctions and the rupture with many international markets, the author writes, have effectively turned China into Moscow's main economic pillar.
This dependence is becoming especially noticeable in the energy sector. Kirichenko points out that Beijing has not yet agreed to implement the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which is critical for Russia after it lost a significant share of the European gas market. China continues to demand significant concessions, taking advantage of the Kremlin’s weakened position.
The author highlights the changes taking place in the Russian Far East. Due to demographic problems and a lack of investment, the region is increasingly integrated into China’s economic space. In some regions of Siberia and the Far East, local residents and officials already look to Beijing as a source of solutions to problems that Moscow is unable to solve on its own.
“China does not need to formally annex Russian territory to dominate. Economic dependence, financial leverage, and regional integration can achieve what once required military conquest,“ the expert concludes.
The author notes that even if Russia makes further territorial gains in Ukraine, it could face disastrous long-term consequences. He argues that cutting off economic ties with Europe for imperial ambitions is increasingly binding Moscow to a relationship in which Beijing has the final say.