Russian President Vladimir Putin has reached a dead end in the war against Ukraine, having failed to achieve any of his goals. But without this, he cannot end the war.
This was stated by Roman Kostenko, deputy and secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, on the program “Great Lviv Speaks“.
“What our intelligence says and what we analyze is that the minimum goal that Putin can present as an intermediate one is the capture of Donbas. Until he takes it, he will either try to negotiate or continue the fighting,” Kostenko said.
He added that Putin needs this to remain at least a regional leader. He needs some kind of victory in the war to save his face. At the same time, he added that Ukraine’s position has become significantly stronger than it was during the intense negotiations in the fall and winter.
„Now we are in the opposite situation. We have practically stopped them. Yes, they are making some progress, but they are suffering huge losses on the battlefield. There is a blockade of Crimea – an important element of the peace process. Our diplomatic strikes have destroyed 30-40% of the Russian oil refining industry. In addition, during Putin’s visit there were several political strikes against Moscow and St. Petersburg. "That's all that shapes our negotiating position," the MP stressed.
Despite the positive developments, the situation on the front line remains difficult for the Ukrainian defense forces, Kostenko said, urging the public "not to fall into euphoria."
“The fact that we can now say that we are stopping the enemy in some areas does not mean that we have stopped it 100%. It continues to advance. Konstantinovka is a very difficult area for us," Kostenko said.
The MP added that Russia is still focusing most of its efforts on the offensive in the entire Donetsk region.
“They are trying to advance there despite heavy losses, but the offensive has not stopped. "That is why it is extremely important to maintain a balance between normal information hygiene, given that our situation has really improved. And, on the other hand, not to fall into this euphoria that victory is tomorrow, thereby ceasing to pay enough attention to our army," Kostenko emphasized.
Analysts have already reported on Russian offensives near Konstantinovka. As military observer Denis Popovich noted, there is currently a possibility that they will be able to take the city by the end of the summer. He explained that Russia is trying to apply the same tactics in the area of the city as it did some time ago in Pokrovsk - consolidating the outskirts and attempting infiltration.
Military expert Pavel Narozhny noted that the situation near Konstantinovka is not developing well for the Ukrainian defense forces. He noted that Russia continues to destroy the city with aerial bombs, forcing Ukrainian defenders to retreat “hundreds of meters“.