Not all of the content of the agreement between the US and Iran is known, since the text itself has not yet been published. However, the agreement is not a final peace agreement, explains ARD correspondent Anne Schneider. It is an interim agreement - the so-called memorandum of understanding.
What does the agreement between the US and Iran include?
According to the "Reuters" agency, the agreement includes 14 points, the most important of which provides for an immediate and final cessation of military operations on all fronts, that is, the fighting in Lebanon. The agreement also includes Iran's promise in principle to give up its nuclear weapons in the future.
Another key point is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran must end the blockade, and in return the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports, which President Donald Trump has already ordered to be done, he himself announced.
The German public broadcaster ARD has learned that the agreement also contains a number of economic concessions for Iran: the country must be given the right to sell and export oil again, and sanctions against Iran must be partially lifted.
There are conflicting reports about the release of frozen Iranian assets. Iran wants to have access to this money and is demanding that the United States and its allies present plans for the reconstruction of Iran worth at least $300 billion, the Iranian news agencies “Mehr“ and “Tasnim“. “The Wall Street Journal“ confirmed the information that some sanctions against Iran may be lifted, but cash payments are not yet planned, the publication specified, referring to US President Donald Trump.
What next?
The agreement is expected to be signed on Friday in Switzerland. After that, negotiations to conclude a final peace agreement should begin. This is scheduled for 60 days.
The emphasis will be on Iran's nuclear program, the management of the country's arsenal of missiles and drones, as well as Iran's support for its military allies. If a final agreement is reached, it must be approved by a UN Security Council resolution, Reuters reported.
How stable is the agreement?
However, it is unclear whether the interim agreement reached will prove to be durable and whether negotiations for a final peace agreement will begin. Trump has already threatened Iran with further military attacks if a final agreement is not reached, the New York Times quoted him as saying. Iran also reserves the right to take further measures if the opposing side does not respect the agreed ceasefire.
Israel also represents a risk factor. The agreement reached provides for a cessation of all hostilities - also in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia. There have been reciprocal attacks this Sunday, including Hezbollah shelling northern Israel, which responded with bombings near Beirut. Trump has called on both sides to exercise restraint, but it remains to be seen whether the attacks in Lebanon will actually be stopped.
If there are further negotiations, the outcome and the achievement of a new agreement are also uncertain. The US is demanding that Iran give up its nuclear program. Iran has already committed in principle not to develop nuclear weapons, ARD recalls. But there are still open questions, such as whether Iran will be able to continue enriching uranium in the future. In addition, there is no unity on the issue of control over the Iranian nuclear program and possible disarmament. Until now, Iran has linked uranium enrichment with its sovereignty and claimed that it is doing so for scientific purposes.
What are the consequences of the agreement for the economy?
The agreement between the US and Iran gives hope for the recovery of the world market. The blockade of Hormuz – one of the world's most important transport routes for oil trade – has led to a massive spike in fuel prices. With the lifting of the blockade, supplies of crude oil, liquefied natural gas and fertilizers from the Persian Gulf should resume, prices are likely to fall in the medium term, which in turn should support the economy.
“Initially, prices on the world market for crude oil and natural gas will fall, which will lead to an immediate drop in inflation and a restoration of consumer purchasing power“, predicts economist Timo Wollmershäuser, head of economic research at the Munich-based Ifo Institute. According to him, interest rates on capital markets and loans will also fall, as there will be no further increases in key interest rates.
Stock markets in Asia have already reacted positively to the agreement between the US and Iran, and the price of oil has fallen significantly: that of Brent from the North Sea fell to $83.75 per barrel - the lowest level since early March. And the American light oil WTI fell to 80.87 dollars.
What can we expect for the Strait of Hormuz
It remains to be seen when the economic recovery will occur as a result of the opening of Hormuz. A prerequisite for this is that the conflict between the US and Iran does not escalate again and the initial agreements are respected. But until the strait is fully open to shipping, it may take some time, because it must first be demined.
According to the American president, the opening should become a fact on Friday - after the signing of the agreement in Switzerland. But even after the opening of the strait, it will take time for international supply chains to be restored. It is also questionable how much confidence shipowners will have in the agreed ceasefire and the safety of transport through the Strait of Hormuz, ARD notes.
Are fuel prices expected to fall again soon?
The German automobile club ADAC does not expect prices to immediately return to pre-war levels, the DPA agency reported. The reason is also that Iran's production capacity and infrastructure have been seriously damaged in the war.
The German government has tried to counteract rising fuel prices by limiting gas stations to raising their prices only once a day. In addition, a discount of just under 17 cents per liter has been applied since May 1. However, this discount expires at the beginning of next month, ARD recalls.
Authors: Anne Schneider ARD | Katharina Willinger ARD