After the end of the military conflict with the United States, the Iranian leadership is facing growing internal tensions between hardline circles who believe the country has emerged victorious from the war, and millions of citizens expecting economic relief and a better standard of living, reports "Reuters".
According to analysts and Iranian officials quoted by the agency, the real challenges facing the Islamic Republic are just beginning. While hardliners insist on accelerated rearmament and an uncompromising stance in the upcoming talks with Washington, a large part of the population expects the funds released after the temporary easing of sanctions to be directed at rebuilding the economy.
Iran is facing high inflation, a devaluation of the national currency, unemployment and serious damage to industry and infrastructure as a result of the war. According to several sources told Reuters, there is a strong expectation among the population that any financial relief will lead to a real improvement in living conditions.
"People are tired of the war and economic hardship", said a senior Iranian official, according to whom some of the funds will likely be used to rebuild infrastructure, support the banking sector and stimulate the economy.
Four Iranian officials acknowledged that there is a risk of new mass protests if the authorities fail to meet public expectations. One of them defines the agreement to end the war as a "double-edged sword", as it has raised the hopes of the population for quick changes.
At the same time, hard-line circles in Iran are demanding a reward for their support during the conflict. According to them, the country has successfully withstood military pressure and should not make excessive concessions to the United States.
Representatives of the conservative "Paydari" front are particularly critical, as they are dissatisfied with the start of negotiations with Washington after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict. Although they do not have enough influence to change state policy, they can create serious political difficulties for the ruling party.
According to sources of "Reuters" the memorandum to end the war between Iran and the United States is to be signed on Friday and will provide for certain financial relief for Tehran. However, a broader easing of sanctions will depend on a future agreement on Iran's nuclear program.
Analysts say the immediate challenge for the new leadership, led by Mojtaba Khamenei after the death of his father, will be to convince its own hardline base that the agreement with the United States is in the country's interest.
Experts also note that since the war, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has further strengthened its influence and is likely to continue to firmly control political life. They say the authorities may show some flexibility on public issues, such as relaxing the requirements for women to wear headscarves, but will not allow greater political freedom or challenges to the established order.
"Control over the domestic situation after Ali Khamenei's death is crucial. "There may be more social freedoms, but there will be no tolerance for political freedoms," said Alex Watanka of the Middle East Institute in Washington.