Ukrainian armed forces have significantly intensified their attacks on the energy and military infrastructure of Russian-occupied Crimea, which Moscow has used since its annexation in 2014 to launch strikes and supply its troops in southern Ukraine.
After several attacks on the Kerch Bridge, in recent years Russia has transferred most of its fuel and other goods by road and rail through the occupied territories along the Azov Sea coast. There are reports that Ukrainian drones are now reaching fuel tankers along these routes that the Russian military until recently considered safe. And in early June, Ukrainian drones also struck the Chongar Bridge, which connects mainland Ukraine and Crimea.
All this has already led to a regime of limited fuel sales on the peninsula. “Now you can wait six to eight hours at a gas station, even ten”, a Simferopol resident told DW.
The Kremlin claims that they are working to eliminate “certain problems” with fuel in Crimea. But in the meantime, there are also problems with the provision of certain food products, such as sugar. Not only the tourist season is under threat, but also Russian military logistics. How can this tactic of the Ukrainian army affect the further course of the war?
Strikes on Russia's military logistics
Kiev says that the strikes on energy infrastructure are aimed at increasing the economic cost of the war for Russia. But the stakes are more than purely economic, observers believe - by controlling key routes, the Ukrainian army is also counting on a significant military effect.
The Washington Institute for the Study of War has already established a mutual connection between the Ukrainian strikes on Crimea and nearby regions and the situation on the battlefield, the institute's expert Christina Harvard told DW. According to her, the Russian army already has obvious problems with the supply of diesel fuel.
„This is very important for military logistics, since the Russian army depends more on diesel fuel than on gasoline. Of course, they use gasoline for certain types of vehicles, but diesel is probably more important on the battlefield," Harvard points out, adding that the Russians are now forced to change supply routes in southern Ukraine, which will significantly delay the provision of their units.
Ukraine's plans: complete isolation of Crimea
By intensifying strikes and taking control of key supply routes for Russian troops, Ukraine plans to isolate Crimea from Russia in the near future, the commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Magyar” Brovdy, recently told Reuters.
What the Ukrainian army could not achieve during the counteroffensive in 2023, now seems to be compensated for thanks to the development of drone technology, where Ukraine is showing serious successes, significantly ahead of the enemy's innovations, according to assessments by Western analytical centers. "Speaking of drone technology, we must understand that it is not just about mastering the skills to operate it. It is about an entire ecosystem that is developing around next-generation warfare," Lesya Ogryzko, director of the Kiev-based "Sagaydachny" Security Center, told DW.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, in turn, was forced to speak about the threats posed by Ukraine's expanded use of drones at a meeting with military personnel in the Kremlin on June 12. "He stressed that nothing will come of it. He thinks so," Leon Aron, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told DW. The analyst is of the exact opposite opinion - that the Ukrainian military is achieving success through drones. And the Russians, along with inflation and economic pressure, are now facing the real danger of being hit by a Ukrainian drone. "This is a kind of Achilles heel of the whole operation, because Putin's strategy from the very beginning was to protect most Russians from the consequences of the war. And if you ask me what has changed in these four years, I can tell you that this is exactly what has changed."
Aron emphasizes that it is not only about the slowdown of the economy, the shortage of labor and resources in the civilian sector of Russia. "They are already starting to feel the pressure of the war", the analyst commented to DW and added that "despite all the sacrifices they have made, the war is not just going badly, but now they themselves feel vulnerable".
Forecast: Crisis in Russia to deepen
The Russian Defense Ministry has not yet commented on the Ukrainian strikes on the land corridor to Crimea. But a number of so-called Russian “military correspondents” have sharply criticized the generals - some suggest providing a military escort for fuel tankers in Crimea, others call for increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, the Associated Press reports.
Could the increased isolation of Crimea and the likely further deterioration of the socio-economic situation in Russia in the summer lead to public discontent among the elites close to the Kremlin? According to Leon Aron, this probability is not high due to the depoliticization of these elites, which has occurred during the years of Putin's rule.
As for the fuel crisis in Russia in the summer, when demand is growing, it will only deepen, predicts Christina Harvard. "It will be interesting to see how the Kremlin deals with this problem in the coming weeks and months," the analyst said.
Author: Dmitry Kanevsky