In recent months, the skies over Russia have been regularly filled with the buzz of hundreds of Ukrainian drones. The large-scale attack by nearly 1,000 drones against targets around Moscow demonstrates an unprecedented technological leap for Kiev.
Behind the scenes of this successful “drone war“, however, lies a harsh strategic reality: Ukraine still does not have its own ballistic missiles — a deficit that leaves its army without the most destructive conventional weapon on the modern battlefield, according to an in-depth analysis by The New York Times.
While Kiev is betting on innovation, Moscow is methodically increasing the production and use of heavy ballistic weapons. This asymmetric imbalance presents Ukraine’s defenses with their most serious test since the conflict began.
Military experts are clear: drones and ballistic missiles play in completely different categories. While Kiev’s long-range drones can penetrate Russian air defenses, they are relatively slow, carry limited explosives, and rely on surprise.
Ballistic missiles, on the other hand — such as Russia’s Iskander-M systems and the new Oreshnik medium-range platforms — carry hundreds of kilograms of warheads. They are launched high into the atmosphere and fall to their targets at hypersonic speeds, propelled by gravity. This makes them almost impossible to intercept without specialized systems and capable of destroying fortified military bunkers and key infrastructure in seconds.
According to US intelligence data cited by the publication, the intensity of Russian ballistic strikes is increasing critically - in 2023, 74 ballistic missiles were launched, and in 2025, nearly 600. For 2026, this pace portends reaching a record 900 ballistic strikes.
Ukraine started the war with old Soviet tactical Tochka-U systems, but their arsenal has been completely depleted for years. Currently, Kiev is entirely dependent on supplies of American ATACMS ballistic missiles. However, their number is very limited (estimated at less than 100 remaining), and Washington continues to impose restrictions on the depth of strikes inside Russia.
The situation is also becoming more complicated on the air defense front. To neutralize a ballistic threat, Ukraine needs American Patriot systems. However, the global capacity for the production of interceptor missiles for them is too low - last year, Lockheed Martin produced a total of only 620 units worldwide. At the current pace of Russian attacks, defending Ukrainian skies is becoming a logistical impossibility.
Pressed to the wall, Kiev is pushing its own missile program, developing in three main directions. The “Sapsan” (Thunder-2) project is the great hope of the Ukrainian state military-industrial complex - an operational-tactical ballistic missile with a range of between 300 and 500 km. Although officials have announced the transition to mass production, The New York Times notes that the project is being delayed by constant Russian strikes on the production facilities of the Yuzhnoye bureau in Dnipro. The FP-7 and FP-9 projects:
With heavy state industry under fire, the private company Fire Point Rocket Technology is developing cheaper alternatives. They use the hulls of old Soviet anti-aircraft missiles (such as the S-300), modified with Western electronics for ballistic strikes on ground targets. The European Lifeline.
Kiev is actively seeking partnerships outside the United States to circumvent restrictions. Agreements have been concluded with Germany for joint missile defense and with Britain to finance cheap long-range weapons under the Brakestop project.
Ukraine's technological genius in drone production has managed to balance the forces on the front, but it cannot win the war of attrition in the air. Without its own mass-produced ballistic missile or a dramatic change in the volume of Western aid, Kiev will remain on the defensive against the most destructive component of the Russian arsenal.