How has the war in Iran affected relations with neighboring Gulf states? Mistrust is growing, despite mutual dependence.
There is a sense of relief in the Gulf - the conflict between the US and Iran is over, at least for now. The war lasted nearly four months, and the other Gulf states were also drawn into it. Iran has repeatedly attacked Arab countries with strikes, mainly against American bases there. Attacks have also been carried out against oil facilities.
Now the Gulf states are rethinking their relations with both the US and Iran. Trust in the protection that the US provides these countries has fallen, reports "Reuters". Iran is now seen as a permanent regional power. De-escalation is welcome, but the situation is definitely worse today than it was before the war, a senior Gulf state official told the news agency.
For now, Iran has no plans to fundamentally change course with its neighbors. On the contrary, the Iranian regime emphasizes the fact that it has gained political dividends from surviving this war. Analysts and diplomats from the Gulf states believe that even if Iran is economically and militarily weakened, it is politically unharmed. The political structures of the Islamic Republic are intact and can continue to exert pressure on its neighbors. The message is clear - Iran remains a regional leader that the Gulf states must reckon with.
No one has an interest in continuing the war
Neither the Gulf states nor Iran have an interest in a new military escalation. At the same time, however, the war has significantly increased mutual distrust. "This conflict has seriously damaged, perhaps even destroyed, the possibility of rapprochement between them", says expert Sebastian Sons of the think tank "Center for the Study of Partnership with the Orient". Saudi Arabia's attempts to normalize relations with Tehran have certainly suffered. The two countries managed to establish diplomatic relations with China only in 2023, after they had been interrupted for seven years. "Tensions regarding Iran have increased significantly," Sons points out.
Researcher Konrad Schetter of the International Center for Conflict Studies in Bonn believes that the situation is tense, but pragmatism will probably prevail. While the attacks on them were shocking to most Gulf states, "common interests will ensure that relations do not completely break down despite all the conflicts," says Shetter. All parties involved have an interest in political stability and economic prosperity.
Minimum effort, maximum effect
Iran has also learned from this war. According to Shetter, the attacks on the Gulf states were strategically motivated. "Iran wanted to make it clear - the region does not function without us." The attacks demonstrated that oil and gas exports, as well as trade and tourism in the region, remain vulnerable. "The Gulf states were a relatively easy target for Iran," says Sebastian Sons. Tehran has managed to achieve very large economic and political effect with limited military resources.
The British think tank "Chatham House" predicts that Iran will increasingly rely on direct confrontation to pressure its neighbors in the future. The war has shown that the Gulf kingdoms are vulnerable, and Tehran certainly wants to continue to dominate regional politics.
Pragmatism comes first
At the same time, there are many indications that the Gulf states will take a more pragmatic approach to Iran. "The discussions are focused on the question of whether to focus on dialogue or deterrence", comments Sebastian Sons. Sunni Saudi Arabia, which is considered the most serious opponent of Shiite Iran, has not severed diplomatic relations with Tehran despite the attacks. Oman and Qatar also remain in dialogue with the authorities in the Islamic Republic. The Gulf states are pursuing a dual strategy - deterrence where necessary and dialogue where possible.
However, the attitude towards the US administration has definitely changed. "These relations are extremely contradictory today", says Sons. The US remains an important partner for the security of the region, but the war has also shown that its capabilities in this regard are limited. Shetter also believes that the Gulf states have directly observed how the US is failing to effectively protect them. Therefore, the expert expects more funds to be allocated in the region for military purposes - investments in air defense and attempts to build land routes for oil and gas exports, independent of the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran is not weakened
"Despite the military strikes, Iran is emerging from this crisis politically stronger", says Conrad Shetter. New alliances are possible in the region, with much greater arrogance on the part of Iran.
At the same time, experts believe that neither full understanding nor open confrontation between Iran and its neighbors is likely. The most realistic scenario is simple coexistence - more distrust than before, but also more dialogue; more deterrence, but also more serious efforts at understanding. Both sides have understood the price of escalation.