In Russia's strikes on Ukraine on the night of June 15, almost 93% of the attacking drones were shot down, the Ukrainian Air Force command reported. But despite the improved results of the Ukrainian air defense, the number of victims of Russian air attacks is growing. According to UN data for May last month, at least 274 civilians were killed and 1,763 were injured.
At the same time, Russia's long-range strikes have inflicted the greatest losses on Ukrainian cities - 45 percent of the victims were in them.
"Shaheeds" are getting faster
The high efficiency of the Ukrainian air defense is due to the effective echeloned defense, which uses various interceptor drones, an officer of the Ukrainian air defense forces told DW. "A large part of the "Shahed" drones are shot down right next to the front line by interceptor drones. And those that manage to cross it are then pursued by helicopters and light aircraft. The ground-based anti-aircraft missile systems of the "Patriot" type are directed against the ballistic missiles and targets that we have not shot down in the air," says the military, who wished to remain anonymous for security reasons.
However, Russian attacks are increasingly adapting to the Ukrainian defense system, looking for its weak points, experts note. The Ukrainian Institute for Testing and Certification of Armaments and Military Equipment has calculated that the number of Russian drones of the “Geran-2“ type (the Russian analogue of the “Shahed-136“) launched against Ukraine in the first two weeks of June alone was more than in the entire previous month.
This statistic illustrates one of the key trends in Russian attacks - the massive use of cheap means to wage a grueling war, notes the institute's representative Alexander Zaruba. “At the tactical level, attack drones have actually replaced part of the artillery and attack aviation - thereby striking armored vehicles and infantry with surgical precision.“
The Ukrainian military and intelligence services noticed the first Russian attempts to improve drones with turbojet engines as early as 2024 - this way the speed can be increased significantly, but the flight range is reduced. In 2026, however, a real breakthrough was made by the Russians in this area - since the beginning of the year, over 1,400 cases of the use of the third, fourth and fifth models of the "Geran" have been recorded with over twice the speed of the "Geran-2". "We simply cannot catch up with them with helicopters. We are now chasing them with airplanes," the expert from the Ukrainian air defense forces told DW.
Russian drones are becoming more versatile
The serial production of "Geran" drones barely manages to meet the needs of the Russian army, Ukrainian researchers note, judging by the fact that one of the drones was shot down just five days after it was manufactured. At the same time, there is another trend - Russian arms manufacturers are gradually turning the "Shaheds" from a cheap way to deliver explosives into a truly universal platform capable of inflicting damage of various kinds.
In addition, thanks to satellite communication and 4G modems, the Russian military now has the ability to remotely control drones. They are equipped with video cameras and radio reconnaissance equipment, and even small anti-aircraft missiles for shooting down helicopters or airplanes.
Alexander Zaruba believes that Russia is clearly looking for new cheap means of air combat, and can also use the missiles as an element of psychological pressure.
In parallel with the universalization of the "Shaheds", Russia continues to develop new models of drones, Zaruba adds. According to him, they do not contain expensive components, and instead use dual-purpose electronics. These are devices with a range of up to 100 km and a warhead of only 4-5 kg, which can be used as a countermeasure against Ukrainian anti-aircraft drones and mobile battle groups.
Missiles are becoming more accurate and more deadly
At the same time as the cost of attack drones decreases, Russian engineers are systematically modernizing their main combat missiles "Iskander-M4, Kh-101 and Kh-69", say specialists from the Ukrainian Institute for Testing and Certification of Armaments and Military Equipment. At the same time, the Kh-101 weapon is becoming even more deadly - the weight of the double warhead has been increased to almost one ton. The second part of it can be detonated at a height of 100-200 meters above the target and is often equipped with cluster munitions.
The “Iskanders“ have been equipped in recent years with a new homing system, more modern electronics and anti-jamming units, which allows them to receive satellite signals even with electronic warfare equipment turned on. Moreover, as Alexander Zaruba notes, a priority area remains increasing the missile's resistance to the “Patriot” complexes, with which Ukraine counters ballistic missiles.
Zaruba suggests that Russia is launching up to 70 modernized “Iskanders“ and up to 50 Kh-101s per month. “They are making every effort to increase production. Our task is to reverse this trend“, the military expert notes.
Ukraine attacks Russian production and improves air defense
An example of the implementation of this task was the Ukrainian strike on the city of Cheboksary on June 10 - against the local military plant “Progress“. At the same time, Ukrainian defense enterprises are improving their own products. At the arms exhibition in Paris, the SkyFall company recently presented an extended version of its most famous drone interceptor. It works with artificial intelligence, which allows targets to be identified faster than with the human eye. Earlier this month, SkyFall reported that over 3,500 “Shahedi“ were shot down with its drones in half a year.
Author: Igor Burdykha