The European Central Bank (ECB) reports limited progress towards euro adoption by the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden, with none of the five countries fully meeting all the economic and legal criteria for joining the euro area. This is stated in the ECB Convergence Report 2026, published today by the Frankfurt institution.
The report assesses the degree of economic and legal convergence of the European Union member states outside the euro area based on the Maastricht criteria. These include requirements for price stability, a budget deficit below 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), government debt below 60 percent of GDP, sustainable long-term interest rates and participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) for at least two years. Legal convergence criteria, mainly related to the independence of central banks and their integration into the Eurosystem, are also assessed.
According to the ECB, despite the resilience of economies to external shocks, significant obstacles to joining the single European currency remain.
The main factors slowing down the convergence process are Russia's war against Ukraine, global trade tensions and the conflict in the Middle East. According to the ECB, the latter has led to higher volatility in energy markets and an increase in energy costs, which has an impact on inflation and economic sentiment.
According to the criterion on price stability, three out of five countries exceed the reference value of 2.7 percent. It is calculated on the basis of the average inflation in the three EU countries with the lowest inflation rates over the past 12 months - Cyprus (0.9 percent), France (1.2 percent) and Denmark (1.6 percent), to which 1.5 percentage points have been added.
The highest inflation was recorded in Romania - 8.4 percent in May 2026, followed by Hungary with 3.3 percent and Poland with 2.9 percent. The Czech Republic and Sweden meet the criterion with inflation rates of 1.9 and 2.2 percent respectively.
The ECB warns that inflationary pressures may increase in the coming months due to higher commodity prices and the fallout from the conflict in the Middle East. Risks to the sustainability of inflation convergence in the longer term have also been identified for Hungary and Romania.
As regards public finances, Romania, Poland and Hungary do not meet the budget deficit criterion. In 2025, the deficit reaches 7.9 percent of GDP in Romania, 7.3 percent in Poland and 4.7 percent in Hungary. The Czech Republic and Sweden remain below the reference value with deficits of 2.1 and 1.3 percent of GDP respectively.
According to the government debt criterion, Hungary is already above the permissible level with a debt of 74.6 percent of GDP. Poland and Romania are just below the threshold at 59.7 and 59.3 percent, while the Czech Republic and Sweden are significantly lower at 44.3 and 35.1 percent of GDP, respectively.
The report notes that none of the five countries participate in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II. Their national currencies operate under flexible exchange rate regimes and have fluctuated to varying degrees against the euro over the two-year period under review.
Under the long-term interest rate criterion, the Czech Republic and Sweden meet the requirement with rates of 4.5 and 2.6 percent, respectively. Poland, Hungary and Romania remain above the 5.1 percent reference value with rates of 5.4 percent for Poland and 6.7 percent for Hungary and Romania.
The ECB also stresses the importance of the quality of institutions and governance for sustainable economic convergence. According to the assessment, with the exception of Sweden, all the countries considered have room for further progress in this area.
In terms of legal criteria, none of the five countries fully meets the requirements for adopting the euro. The ECB points to various inconsistencies in national legislation related to the independence of central banks, the prohibition of monetary financing and the legal integration into the Eurosystem (the central banks of the euro area and the ECB - editor's note).
The Convergence Report is published every two years and assesses the degree of economic and legal readiness of non-euro area Member States to join the single European currency. Any EU country outside the euro area can also request an extraordinary report if it believes it meets the criteria for adopting the single currency. Last year, Bulgaria did so, which subsequently became the twenty-first country to adopt the euro.
Denmark is not included in the assessment due to its agreed exemption from the obligation to adopt the euro.