Although the war in Ukraine has exposed the numerous weaknesses of the Russian army, the future of European security remains at risk. In his extensive analytical article for Foreign Affairs, leading military analyst Michael Kofman emphasizes that even in the event of defeat, Russia will remain the main destabilizing factor in Europe, writes Focus.
Current trends show that the Kremlin is capable of restoring its offensive potential significantly faster than expected at the beginning of a full-scale invasion. This process will take from five to seven years, which is an extremely short period by the standards of defense planning. Instead of repeating trench warfare, Moscow will try to return to large-scale offensive maneuvers, but at a new technological level.
Changes in the Russian Army
Experts believe that the future Russian armed forces will be significantly reorganized. The Kremlin has built an effective system for constantly replenishing its personnel through mercenaries. The Russian military leadership has placed emphasis on quantity, mass production of artillery and, most importantly, the transition to the concept of “mass precision“ through the large-scale deployment of unmanned systems.
The Russian defense industry has demonstrated a high degree of adaptability despite harsh Western sanctions. The Russian military-industrial complex has managed to find workarounds for component supply and produces millions of tactical drones annually, the publication notes.
NATO's problems
Michael Koffman warns NATO countries against being too complacent about Russia's tactical failures in Ukraine. Western armies have colossal advantages in air power, naval power and technology, but they have never fought on a battlefield saturated with drones and electronic warfare systems.
Joint exercises involving Ukrainian drones have revealed a systemic problem: Alliance forces are unsure how to operate in an environment where autonomous killer drones outnumber personnel. Western ground forces are acutely lacking short-range mobile air defense systems and countermeasures against mass attacks by cheap drones.
The role of the United States
A separate risk factor remains political uncertainty about the role of the United States in European security. NATO's current defense plans are critically dependent on American logistics and command, which Washington is gradually trying to transfer to its European allies.
To avoid catastrophic losses in the early days of a potential conflict with Russia, the Alliance must immediately move from declarations to radical reforms: abandoning outdated structures in favor of creating extensive unmanned units and large-scale multi-layered air defense systems, Foreign Affairs concludes.