In recent weeks, the situation in Russia's war against Ukraine has changed. Residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg have felt it for the first time. Doubts that everything will end well are growing. Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries deep in Russia have led to a fuel crisis: huge queues are forming at gas stations, and restrictions on the sale of gasoline have been introduced in 23 regions. A state of emergency has been declared in Crimea to avoid economic collapse. President Putin admitted that Russia is going through a “difficult stage“.
Kiev is now able to put pressure on
The fact that Kiev is able to put such pressure on Moscow and act from a position of strength is a new phenomenon that no one could have imagined just a few months ago. The signal to the Russians is clear - if you continue this war, your economy and your population will pay an ever higher price, so sit down at the negotiating table until the damage is irreparable. Previously, the situation was the opposite.
The United States has again drawn attention to this war and is contributing to the current series of Ukrainian air strikes on Russia. This is causing great irritation in Moscow. Back in the spring, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin almost synchronously “stuck“ Volodymyr Zelensky, in order to force him to accept a peace imposed on Ukraine and to hand over to Russia even parts of Donbas that the Russian army does not yet control. The Americans, meanwhile, have stopped talking about this. At the G-7 meeting in mid-June, Europe and the United States found themselves on the same page again for the first time in a long time.
Europe needs specific positions in relations with Putin
Is Putin nervous? From the outside - not in the least. He rejects direct negotiations with Zelensky and instructed his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to explain that negotiations with Europe are pointless, since it is firmly on the side of Ukraine. But in early May, Putin himself raised the issue of such negotiations.
So far, the Europeans have not been able to take advantage of these kinds of statements from the Russian president. Putin’s offer of talks at the time may have been a ruse, and the choice of former German Chancellor Schröder as a possible mediator a diversionary maneuver. But to dwell on this issue for two or three weeks and not make any progress is a clear failure for Europe. Although there is a list of five points, these demands are not a realistic basis for negotiations. It is possible that these issues will not be discussed publicly, but through informal diplomatic channels, but there is no sign of this.
It is also unclear who could lead the negotiation process on the European side. Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi? Former German Chancellor Merkel? Finnish President Alexander Stubb? No, this is not a “stage for one actor”: within the framework of the new European troika, it was envisaged to activate a trio including German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer.
But Poland and Italy expressed their disagreement and expanded the group to five - with Donald Tusk and Giorgia Meloni. Then the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, without prior coordination, established contact with Moscow and was subjected to sharp criticism. On this issue, there is clearly neither unity nor determination. Europe is hesitating and delaying. There may not even be any agreed goals for ending the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine's new position - a position of strength - requires support from Europe through a decisive diplomatic initiative that would put pressure on Putin not only militarily but also politically and make him keep his word. But this has not happened so far. The Europeans' hope that Ukraine's military successes alone will force the Kremlin to abandon its goals is premature. Yes, it is under pressure, and everyone feels it. But there is not the slightest sign of hesitation on its part.
It is still too early to talk about a turning point in the war
Moreover, in Russian military circles and among military bloggers Z, the possibility of more decisive and at the same time more effective combat actions is being discussed. Three options are being considered: the use of tactical nuclear weapons, a new mobilization, or hybrid attacks on Europe.
The use of nuclear weapons carries significant risks and will provoke a reaction from China and the United States. The Kremlin will most likely not decide on this step. Mobilization will further turn the population against it, which is also a big risk, while Russian hybrid attacks on Europe promise the greatest success. Europeans are afraid, they can easily be divided and turned against each other.
At the same time, Putin may not take any steps and simply follow his previous strategy. He continues to rely on an exhausting war and on the fact that his troops will outlast the Ukrainian ones. The situation on the Donbas front has remained stalemated for a year and a half, the events of recent weeks have not led to any change. Russia is also counting on next winter: then the Kremlin intends to dictate the terms again, attacking energy infrastructure with drones.
Time for action
No, it is still too early to talk about a turning point in the war. And, yes, the situation has changed and the strategic advantage is in the hands of Ukraine, despite the territorial stalemate in Donbas. But if this chance is not seized decisively now and is not supported by a clear diplomatic plan of action by the Europeans to force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table, the window of time may quickly close.
Author: Dirk Emmerich