In fact, Russia experiences gasoline shortages every year - towards the end of summer, when demand increases due to the holiday season and harvest, and oil refineries carry out scheduled repairs. This year, however, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil facilities in response to Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities triggered a crisis back in June. In reality, its scale is more modest than it seems, judging by the alarming posts on social networks and the media, but around September - on the eve of the State Duma elections, the situation could become critical.
How bad is the situation with gasoline in Russia?
Social networks and the media are full of alarming testimonies from different regions. In addition to journalists and bloggers, reports from gas station tours are also published by regional authorities - they call them – "raids". In one such assessment of the situation, the governor of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Gleb Nikitin, confirms queues at gas stations, the absence of fuel or fuel prices that are up to 40 percent higher at independent (private) gas stations.
By the end of June, the number of Russian regions with restrictions on fuel sales exceeded 40 - approximately half of all regions. But the list is constantly being updated - the Altai Republic was recently included, where there are already restrictions on the sale of no more than 30 liters of gasoline and 50 liters of diesel per person per day. The restrictions do not apply to emergency services, social and communal services, as well as agricultural producers.
How are Russians feeling the crisis?
From the latest surveys by the "Public Opinion" Foundation (FOM), it is clear that Russians have noticed the problem with gasoline, and interest in the topic is growing. The analysis of searches in "Yandex" also confirms the trend - as early as May, interest in the topic was unusually high for this time of year. And according to data from the Google Trends service in June, there was a higher interest in fuel prices and their availability only in September 2018.
"For now, for me, all this is more of a slight discomfort than a real problem: if, for example, a person has been filling up at the same gas station all his life, and now he has to wait in line for two hours and the gasoline runs out right in front of his nose – for him, this will be a problem", Moscow resident Ivan tells DW. He personally rates the severity of the problem at 3 on a scale of 1 to 10, and the internet blockage – at 5 on a scale of 1 to 10.
The bad news for Russian drivers is that this discomfort will increase in the coming months. With the seasonal increase in fuel demand, the pressure on the market will increase – especially if Ukraine continues to regularly attack Russian refineries.
Why is the gasoline crisis set to get worse?
As a result of the Ukrainian drone strikes, fuel production in Russia in June fell by 25% compared to the average level for the same period in 2025, according to Reuters industry sources.
A similar assessment was made by Sergei Vakulenko, an expert at the Carnegie Berlin Center. Given that Russia produces more gasoline than it consumes in the country, the net difference between fuel production and the usual demand for this time of year, according to his calculations, could amount to about 15%. This is significantly more than at the height of the previous crisis in September 2025, when the shortage was 6%. However, the current shortage can be partially compensated by more active use of accumulated stocks.
As a result, even now, when the seasonal growth in demand is barely gaining momentum, retail prices have begun to rise sharply. According to Rosstat data, in one week the price of gasoline has increased by 3% on average for the country, and diesel fuel - by 2.74%. If prices continue to grow at the same pace - by 3% per week - in just one month gasoline will become more expensive by 12.5%.
Ways out of the gasoline crisis
Experts from the analytical company Kpler believe that the situation on the Russian fuel market is likely to continue to deteriorate. However, they are not committed to a more accurate forecast because of the many unknowns at the moment.
One of the measures that could soften the blow is the more efficient use of the still available production capacities, as well as lowering the requirements for environmental standards for the fuel produced. The latter is already being discussed: according to "Kommersant", the government is ready to allow the production of gasoline and diesel according to the "Euro-2" standard, which was banned in 2013.
In addition, Russia may suspend gasoline supplies to neighboring countries under intergovernmental agreements - the remaining exports are already banned. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak hinted at such a possibility.
Another measure is to increase imports - primarily from Belarus. According to experts from Kpler, Russia could import smaller quantities by rail from Azerbaijan, Central Asian countries, and China. According to media reports, Moscow is already negotiating deliveries of petroleum products by sea - specifically from India and Turkey. But in general, the problem of the deficit will not be solved by imports alone, since logistics are not at all adapted for this, Vakulenko assured DW.
Finally, the Russian authorities could shift their focus - from encouraging supply to limiting demand. To do this, it would be enough to let prices rise - now the state is holding them back artificially, paying producers compensation from the budget through the so-called "depreciation mechanism". But will the Kremlin decide on such a step before the State Duma elections in September? Kpler experts consider such a scenario unlikely.
Author: Oleg Loginov