Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the country is preparing “extremely intensively“ for a wide range of emergencies amid serious warnings from US intelligence about a planned Russian armed provocation on Polish territory.
“I don't want to scare anyone, but the coming months – including due to the changing nature of the war in Ukraine – could prove to be really critical, especially for the Baltic states”, Tusk said during a press conference, quoted by European media. He urged citizens to maintain self-control, but stressed that allied data should not be underestimated at any time.
What are the intelligence scenarios?
According to confidential diplomatic sources and publications in publications such as the British The Telegraph and the Polish Onet, Washington has repeatedly signaled to Warsaw about the Kremlin's plans to test NATO's unity through conventional or hybrid attacks. Potential threats include:
- Limited ground incursion of Russian or Belarusian units across the border, which Moscow could disguise as a “technical failure“ or “navigation error“;
- Drone strikes against critical and energy infrastructure in Poland;
- Simulated air attacks, aimed at forcing Warsaw to activate its air defense systems.
The purpose of such a “false flag“ operation would be to exert political pressure on the West and block or reduce military aid to Ukraine, with the Kremlin betting on possible restraint from NATO to avoid a full-scale clash.
A firm response from Warsaw
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski addressed Russian President Vladimir Putin directly with the words: „We know what you are planning. Don't do it. It would be a manifestation of gross recklessness and madness to test the resolve of the Alliance“. For his part, Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosyniak-Kamiś recalled that Poland is already implementing the largest rearmament program in its history precisely because of the daily pressure on the borders.
The situation is also complicated by the fact that Poland has announced caution regarding new financial commitments to Kiev for the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara (July 7-8). Donald Tusk stressed that his country bears a huge responsibility for the security of the entire eastern border of the EU and these costs must be taken into account by the allies.
Sources: BBC News, The Telegraph, TVP World and Belsat, Kyiv Independent